{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f7bb6dc8-db72-4e33-b2d5-72a999e3b867", "symbol": "000797", "name": "China Wuyi Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.027, "architecture_energy": 44.481, "architecture_maturity": 93.083, "architecture_confidence": 63.911, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.1, "rotation_up": 26.85, "upward_expansion": 18.45, "deceleration": 66.95, "rotation_down": 44.14, "downward_expansion": 68.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.312667, 2.305273, 2.425619, 2.552903 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.36, "trend_reference": 2.756667, "distance_from_trend": -0.143894, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.876248, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.179487, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.908129, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.23871, "excess_performance": -0.246109, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.143894, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142828, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.179487, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160054, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.229081, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003878, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.23871, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.440901, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 106758170, "relative_activity": 1.011479, "balance": 0.440901, "dry_up": 1.078888, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072034, "annualized_volatility": 0.25742, "from_high_reference": -0.5154, "from_low_reference": 0.087558 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.756667, "fair_value_reference": 2.876248, "structural_low": 2.17, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.003937, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": 0.012668, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.365759, "worst_return": -0.157377, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.016325, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.045535, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.67509, "worst_return": -0.177122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.057811, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.032309, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.322097, "worst_return": -0.15023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084559, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016835, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041379, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.128289, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018727, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.067376, 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2.590333, 2.754989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.3, "volume": 110823149, "typical_volume": 114578460.6, "trend": 2.981, "fair_value": 2.900125, "relative_strength": -30.698066, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.638264, "energy": 84.439738, "activity_lines": [ 2.29, 2.384909, 2.549667, 2.707634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.25, "volume": 125611491, "typical_volume": 114025206.6, "trend": 2.931333, "fair_value": 2.893995, "relative_strength": -24.914319, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.926523, "energy": 75.798976, "activity_lines": [ 2.268667, 2.342182, 2.508, 2.660473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.23, "volume": 120667153, "typical_volume": 112276196.95, "trend": 2.867, "fair_value": 2.887609, "relative_strength": -25.374745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.405999, "energy": 63.602752, "activity_lines": [ 2.254, 2.307273, 2.46881, 2.615226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.35, "volume": 102455147, "typical_volume": 110300710.75, "trend": 2.809, "fair_value": 2.883014, "relative_strength": -19.659598, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.960638, "energy": 55.725836, "activity_lines": [ 2.286667, 2.303091, 2.445143, 2.581871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.36, "volume": 106758170, "typical_volume": 105546648.85, "trend": 2.756667, "fair_value": 2.876248, "relative_strength": -22.908129, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.026895, "energy": 44.480807, "activity_lines": [ 2.312667, 2.305273, 2.425619, 2.552903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }