{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f7c005e2-aecf-45fc-a1ea-24e234aa8e35", "symbol": "CRSM", "name": "Carasso Motors Ltd.", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.145, "architecture_energy": 67.741, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.224, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.54, "rotation_up": 29.91, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.98, "rotation_down": 58.89, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.58, 32.521273, 880.18798, 1526.923228 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 31.39, "trend_reference": 2309.676084, "distance_from_trend": -0.986409, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2459.612748, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987238, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -99.067438, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.991665, "excess_performance": -1.020565, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.986409, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.342156, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.987238, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.23462, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.990674, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.654239, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.991665, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.349414, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2483501, "relative_activity": 4.394083, "balance": 1.349414, "dry_up": 1.846932, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 10.763015, "annualized_volatility": 6.37195, "from_high_reference": -0.992605, "from_low_reference": 0.03906 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2309.676084, "fair_value_reference": 2459.612748, "structural_low": 30.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.015712, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.015769, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.287671, "worst_return": -0.989389, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.052614, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.049301, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.210829, "worst_return": -0.989743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.080453, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.018642, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.297811, "worst_return": -0.102489, 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487537.5, "trend": 2669.228084, "fair_value": 2490.718771, "relative_strength": -99.125282, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.692415, "energy": 87.707096, "activity_lines": [ 33.113333, 399.86431, 1435.341445, 2014.802427 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.45, "volume": 368650, "typical_volume": 482306.75, "trend": 2554.643084, "fair_value": 2480.612413, "relative_strength": -99.111459, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.523785, "energy": 68.641012, "activity_lines": [ 32.782, 220.2153, 1233.194576, 1844.687712 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.6, "volume": 821073, "typical_volume": 494627.85, "trend": 2432.696417, "fair_value": 2470.122853, "relative_strength": -99.114942, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.400271, "energy": 68.188527, "activity_lines": [ 31.963333, 97.111722, 1048.683659, 1681.846223 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.39, "volume": 2483501, "typical_volume": 565192.15, "trend": 2309.676084, "fair_value": 2459.612748, "relative_strength": -99.067438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.145351, "energy": 67.741131, "activity_lines": [ 31.58, 32.521273, 880.18798, 1526.923228 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }