{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f7c016f2-6664-4b1a-9685-518ff9c490ab", "symbol": "SLVP", "name": "iShares MSCI Global Silver and Metals Miners ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 73.204, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.53, "architecture_energy": 55.286, "architecture_maturity": 37.316, "architecture_confidence": 85.604, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.25, "rotation_up": 21.54, "upward_expansion": 8.42, "deceleration": 56.69, "rotation_down": 59.35, "downward_expansion": 81.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 538.794666, 546.621474, 570.480698, 593.460969 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 528.0, "trend_reference": 628.844312, "distance_from_trend": -0.160365, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 430.948323, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.225205, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.981053, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.228533, "excess_performance": -0.173866, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.160365, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018417, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.225205, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.321536, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.059811, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.264181, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.228533, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.28223, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50, "relative_activity": 0.553097, "balance": 1.28223, "dry_up": 0.273783, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06708, "annualized_volatility": 0.509737, "from_high_reference": -0.374371, "from_low_reference": 0.739769 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 628.844312, "fair_value_reference": 430.948323, "structural_low": 518.628235, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.047619, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.049461, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.047619, "worst_return": 0.047619, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"gate": "down", "direction": -63.101658, "energy": 71.156579, "activity_lines": [ 541.957328, 555.636903, 581.322311, 605.649052 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 550.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 146.1, "trend": 632.457646, "fair_value": 430.089459, "relative_strength": -1.460001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.239276, "energy": 55.532946, "activity_lines": [ 542.189331, 552.789969, 576.568171, 600.200171 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 528.0, "volume": 50, "typical_volume": 90.4, "trend": 628.844312, "fair_value": 430.948323, "relative_strength": -5.981053, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.529916, "energy": 55.286399, "activity_lines": [ 538.794666, 546.621474, 570.480698, 593.460969 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }