{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f7ce632e-d9bf-4deb-b566-22dc772b1dac", "symbol": "DEZ", "name": "DEUTZ Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -5.448, "architecture_energy": 15.174, "architecture_maturity": 17.714, "architecture_confidence": 68.065, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.15, "rotation_up": 39.55, "upward_expansion": 30.55, "deceleration": 37.51, "rotation_down": 17.87, "downward_expansion": 44.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.969, 9.690818, 9.707391, 9.773173 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.43, "trend_reference": 9.989576, "distance_from_trend": 0.044088, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.489885, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.607116, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.471394, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.035641, "excess_performance": -0.209887, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044088, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047927, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.607116, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15385, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094714, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129835, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035641, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 21.86379, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9162, "relative_activity": 5.049186, "balance": 21.86379, "dry_up": 1.52338, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077341, "annualized_volatility": 0.54762, "from_high_reference": -0.166042, "from_low_reference": 0.420074 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.989576, "fair_value_reference": 6.489885, "structural_low": 8.032946, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.016189, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.032482, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.32736, "worst_return": -0.18886, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.147468, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.136317, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.003584, "worst_return": -0.29852, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.120294, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.222943, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.061414, "worst_return": -0.302002, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.563602, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135718, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.079975, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029869, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086259, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.186319, 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10.165004, 10.001948, 10.003002, 9.909008 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 9.535, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1006.9, "trend": 9.590306, "fair_value": 6.216124, "relative_strength": -11.231312, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.636551, "energy": 11.407836, "activity_lines": [ 9.975121, 9.968814, 9.938991, 9.909156 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 9.17, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1006.9, "trend": 9.646397, "fair_value": 6.241153, "relative_strength": -16.902816, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.921371, "energy": 6.732022, "activity_lines": [ 9.667, 9.846119, 9.84552, 9.88204 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 9.94, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1002.9, "trend": 9.728319, "fair_value": 6.274519, "relative_strength": -13.611611, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.258922, 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.86284, "energy": 48.362982, "activity_lines": [ 9.228, 9.448124, 9.587705, 9.766714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.375, "volume": 1695, "typical_volume": 1611.5, "trend": 9.862667, "fair_value": 6.38244, "relative_strength": -15.423586, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.437309, "energy": 49.761312, "activity_lines": [ 9.265, 9.392818, 9.553928, 9.737281 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.17, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 1416.95, "trend": 9.927347, "fair_value": 6.417371, "relative_strength": -9.453179, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.009109, "energy": 10.635924, "activity_lines": [ 9.553333, 9.506818, 9.609654, 9.757109 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.715, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1413.95, "trend": 9.968667, "fair_value": 6.449934, "relative_strength": -13.383557, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.512004, "energy": 15.604025, "activity_lines": [ 9.674667, 9.533455, 9.624418, 9.743409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.43, "volume": 9162, "typical_volume": 1814.55, "trend": 9.989576, "fair_value": 6.489885, "relative_strength": -9.471394, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.44751, "energy": 15.173632, "activity_lines": [ 9.969, 9.690818, 9.707391, 9.773173 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }