{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f7e09d70-de3b-4f2b-8fc5-2f9f6f59521d", "symbol": "9588", "name": "Riyadh Steel Co.", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.275, "architecture_energy": 67.241, "architecture_maturity": 9.417, "architecture_confidence": 88.563, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.93, "rotation_up": 9.93, "upward_expansion": 15.05, "deceleration": 37.38, "rotation_down": 69.6, "downward_expansion": 88.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.32, 1.363818, 1.393563, 1.411366 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.34, "trend_reference": 1.437324, "distance_from_trend": -0.067712, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.884456, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.28892, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.417563, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.100671, "excess_performance": -0.068842, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.067712, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044115, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.28892, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036396, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124176, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00385, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.100671, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.276226, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 80605, "relative_activity": 0.440872, "balance": 0.276226, "dry_up": 0.688933, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063945, "annualized_volatility": 0.419629, "from_high_reference": -0.339901, "from_low_reference": 0.063492 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.437324, "fair_value_reference": 1.884456, "structural_low": 1.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.053892, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.008248, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.180312, "worst_return": -0.145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.041958, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.071699, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.080247, "worst_return": -0.067568, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.026484, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021331, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.030864, "worst_return": -0.083832, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"energy": 26.168106, "activity_lines": [ 1.405333, 1.410146, 1.428987, 1.440203 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.32, "volume": 215249, "typical_volume": 189881.05, "trend": 1.459324, "fair_value": 1.892978, "relative_strength": -14.54562, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.61106, "energy": 57.418491, "activity_lines": [ 1.368667, 1.39466, 1.417941, 1.430462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.27, "volume": 59675, "typical_volume": 180282.25, "trend": 1.446657, "fair_value": 1.888431, "relative_strength": -15.688636, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.612145, "energy": 73.680863, "activity_lines": [ 1.324, 1.372402, 1.402228, 1.418248 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.34, "volume": 80605, "typical_volume": 182830.8, "trend": 1.437324, "fair_value": 1.884456, "relative_strength": -12.417563, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.275122, "energy": 67.240686, "activity_lines": [ 1.32, 1.363818, 1.393563, 1.411366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }