{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f7e39769-763c-4611-8ce1-69ec989312db", "symbol": "VFC", "name": "V.F. Corporation", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.418, "architecture_energy": 70.884, "architecture_maturity": 31.249, "architecture_confidence": 87.936, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.47, "rotation_up": 10.85, "upward_expansion": 15.17, "deceleration": 37.46, "rotation_down": 70.85, "downward_expansion": 88.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.589333, 14.129122, 14.599436, 14.875395 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.79, "trend_reference": 15.328542, "distance_from_trend": -0.165609, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.740768, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.132338, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.123056, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.260799, "excess_performance": -0.435046, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.165609, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012672, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.132338, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.219786, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.281231, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.302357, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.260799, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.138254, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.138254, "dry_up": 0.001777, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090427, "annualized_volatility": 0.48691, "from_high_reference": -0.308216, "from_low_reference": 0.290348 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.328542, "fair_value_reference": 14.740768, "structural_low": 12.525, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.008712, "positive_rate": 0.475, "directional_follow_through": 0.525, "median_excess_return": -0.018894, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.477328, "worst_return": -0.247681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.000243, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.001519, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.382117, "worst_return": -0.357789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.119257, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.072991, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.60137, "worst_return": -0.478958, 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14.715, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 351.2, "trend": 15.602807, "fair_value": 14.816159, "relative_strength": -15.417756, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.770503, "energy": 21.284289, "activity_lines": [ 14.841667, 14.796522, 15.080981, 15.321783 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.85, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 281.6, "trend": 15.576725, "fair_value": 14.805916, "relative_strength": -13.042215, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.116558, "energy": 22.618127, "activity_lines": [ 14.798667, 14.79524, 15.05205, 15.273215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.125, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 281.3, "trend": 15.56405, "fair_value": 14.796842, "relative_strength": -12.70629, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.209429, "energy": 21.895759, "activity_lines": [ 14.881333, 14.868194, 15.055904, 15.244072 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.525, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 281.3, "trend": 15.465439, "fair_value": 14.770746, "relative_strength": -27.584444, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.653308, "energy": 60.342788, "activity_lines": [ 14.099667, 14.460374, 14.811744, 15.048004 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.79, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 281.3, "trend": 15.328542, "fair_value": 14.740768, "relative_strength": -28.123056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.41842, "energy": 70.884164, "activity_lines": [ 13.589333, 14.129122, 14.599436, 14.875395 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }