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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 49.194, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.549, "architecture_energy": 48.008, "architecture_maturity": 4.823, "architecture_confidence": 80.966, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.32, "rotation_up": 10.41, "upward_expansion": 8.49, "deceleration": 40.74, "rotation_down": 66.25, "downward_expansion": 84.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.681333, 6.781636, 6.849066, 6.85306 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.67, "trend_reference": 6.913965, "distance_from_trend": -0.035286, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.676528, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.175014, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.069172, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.085094, "excess_performance": -0.053265, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035286, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008424, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.175014, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137382, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020692, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081781, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.085094, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.185291, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32312, "relative_activity": 0.210212, "balance": 0.185291, "dry_up": 0.466134, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051551, "annualized_volatility": 0.183688, "from_high_reference": -0.143, "from_low_reference": 0.303991 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.913965, "fair_value_reference": 5.676528, "structural_low": 6.058889, 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"activity_lines": [ 7.05, 7.035636, 6.910341, 6.944264 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 6.99, "volume": 454371, "typical_volume": 181735.4, "trend": 6.995977, "fair_value": 5.556097, "relative_strength": 4.773092, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.149964, "energy": 4.590793, "activity_lines": [ 7.024667, 7.037636, 6.921285, 6.944286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.77, "volume": 171439, "typical_volume": 189702.95, "trend": 6.989337, "fair_value": 5.581524, "relative_strength": 1.200226, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.632215, "energy": 10.025582, "activity_lines": [ 6.933333, 6.993636, 6.912237, 6.929707 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.7, "volume": 158330, "typical_volume": 192522.3, "trend": 6.985767, "fair_value": 5.607625, "relative_strength": 0.603425, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.898984, "energy": 24.349495, "activity_lines": [ 6.84, 6.935636, 6.897735, 6.91104 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.66, "volume": 7706, "typical_volume": 190517.4, "trend": 6.97546, "fair_value": 5.631866, "relative_strength": -1.047341, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.579488, "energy": 36.287302, "activity_lines": [ 6.76, 6.875818, 6.87956, 6.890022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.68, "volume": 88253, "typical_volume": 182314.0, "trend": 6.947452, "fair_value": 5.655165, "relative_strength": 0.82744, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.425877, "energy": 42.764256, "activity_lines": [ 6.711333, 6.825818, 6.864321, 6.87096 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.67, "volume": 32312, "typical_volume": 153711.75, "trend": 6.913965, "fair_value": 5.676528, "relative_strength": -2.069172, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.548866, "energy": 48.008253, "activity_lines": [ 6.681333, 6.781636, 6.849066, 6.85306 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }