{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f7e611c2-a181-4c84-b5ef-25d5b44f7ce3", "symbol": "STPU", "name": "Amundi US Curve steepening 2-10Y UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 69.1, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 43.369, "architecture_energy": 46.231, "architecture_maturity": 64.929, "architecture_confidence": 73.134, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.41, "rotation_up": 70.99, "upward_expansion": 43.17, "deceleration": 39.05, "rotation_down": 14.03, "downward_expansion": 18.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 98.957334, 98.619365, 98.527977, 98.601979 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 99.330002, "trend_reference": 98.799501, "distance_from_trend": 0.005369, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 96.702144, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.027175, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.585948, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.007891, "excess_performance": -0.059126, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005369, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002786, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.027175, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000962, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.075859, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010092, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007891, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.578808, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1998, "relative_activity": 0.45374, "balance": 0.578808, "dry_up": 0.530045, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003821, "annualized_volatility": 0.023289, "from_high_reference": -0.009671, "from_low_reference": 0.0171 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 98.799501, "fair_value_reference": 96.702144, "structural_low": 97.660004, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.000488, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.0007, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.026158, "worst_return": -0.025591, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.00032, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.006513, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.033699, "worst_return": -0.028207, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.012578, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.003495, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.034774, "worst_return": -0.033139, 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98.888834, "fair_value": 96.493715, "relative_strength": -6.264835, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.304424, "energy": 60.90541, "activity_lines": [ 98.109667, 98.186091, 98.376048, 98.589291 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 98.580002, "volume": 7180, "typical_volume": 5442.1, "trend": 98.8565, "fair_value": 96.549837, "relative_strength": -6.642695, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.690007, "energy": 27.870801, "activity_lines": [ 98.280334, 98.23691, 98.381453, 98.569366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 98.459999, "volume": 126, "typical_volume": 5443.9, "trend": 98.828167, "fair_value": 96.602401, "relative_strength": -7.634977, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.38011, "energy": 24.408802, "activity_lines": [ 98.394333, 98.266091, 98.377381, 98.543785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 99.205002, "volume": 32, "typical_volume": 5443.75, "trend": 98.804834, "fair_value": 96.65208, "relative_strength": -7.743867, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.312084, "energy": 23.616088, "activity_lines": [ 98.703334, 98.437183, 98.447477, 98.568097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 99.330002, "volume": 1998, "typical_volume": 4403.4, "trend": 98.799501, "fair_value": 96.702144, "relative_strength": -7.585948, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.368761, "energy": 46.231024, "activity_lines": [ 98.957334, 98.619365, 98.527977, 98.601979 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }