{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f7e99309-5076-4859-8d0a-9b32cec6d934", "symbol": "OGC", "name": "OceanaGold Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.909, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.268, "architecture_energy": 45.277, "architecture_maturity": 43.858, "architecture_confidence": 84.095, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.81, "rotation_up": 24.78, "upward_expansion": 6.56, "deceleration": 59.23, "rotation_down": 48.37, "downward_expansion": 77.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.297333, 35.341272, 37.373563, 39.636608 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 39.139999, "trend_reference": 42.580704, "distance_from_trend": -0.080804, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.23855, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.933933, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.39796, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.15195, "excess_performance": -0.272372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.080804, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008932, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.933933, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.506503, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.08398, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.255552, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.15195, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.771754, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3881500, "relative_activity": 1.187777, "balance": 0.771754, "dry_up": 1.2409, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092196, "annualized_volatility": 0.584207, "from_high_reference": -0.335312, "from_low_reference": 0.808168 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.580704, "fair_value_reference": 20.23855, "structural_low": 30.67, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.043269, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": 0.022708, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.401015, "worst_return": -0.09375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.11097, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.057566, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.566327, "worst_return": -0.070403, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.209184, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.291053, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.308458, "worst_return": 0.020289, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -23.160787, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.704646, "energy": 78.111273, "activity_lines": [ 34.533333, 35.879254, 38.727582, 41.057674 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.57, "volume": 3896800, "typical_volume": 3521455.0, "trend": 42.834332, "fair_value": 19.8788, "relative_strength": -18.470713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.345567, "energy": 61.778994, "activity_lines": [ 33.976, 35.198182, 38.012482, 40.44761 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.799999, "volume": 3590700, "typical_volume": 3514450.0, "trend": 42.676209, "fair_value": 20.0424, "relative_strength": -17.938887, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.860425, "energy": 63.842031, "activity_lines": [ 33.700666, 34.729272, 37.406818, 39.86475 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.139999, "volume": 3881500, "typical_volume": 3267870.0, "trend": 42.580704, "fair_value": 20.23855, "relative_strength": -8.39796, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.268222, "energy": 45.276986, "activity_lines": [ 35.297333, 35.341272, 37.373563, 39.636608 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }