{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f7ebf2b4-7a72-41e4-b6d4-c6741693ae0f", "symbol": "XDEB", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Minimum Volatility UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 90.645, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.245, "architecture_energy": 80.837, "architecture_maturity": 16.156, "architecture_confidence": 61.706, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.81, "rotation_up": 82.64, "upward_expansion": 94.85, "deceleration": 40.76, "rotation_down": 10.19, "downward_expansion": 16.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.624333, 44.213272, 43.5685, 43.306688 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 45.23, "trend_reference": 42.996167, "distance_from_trend": 0.051954, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.833558, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.107667, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.038467, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.062111, "excess_performance": -0.108781, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051954, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014547, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.107667, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067095, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.090385, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041739, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.062111, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.333284, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16411, "relative_activity": 1.344046, "balance": 2.333284, "dry_up": 1.604792, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017101, "annualized_volatility": 0.087598, "from_high_reference": -0.006262, "from_low_reference": 0.097283 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.996167, "fair_value_reference": 40.833558, "structural_low": 41.584999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.002324, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.00196, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.051909, "worst_return": -0.065017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.000909, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035448, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.074376, "worst_return": -0.040933, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.039851, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.111692, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.085326, "worst_return": -0.04974, "sufficient": true }, { 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42.943524, 42.843849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.224998, "volume": 19512, "typical_volume": 11080.15, "trend": 42.719833, "fair_value": 40.651442, "relative_strength": -8.893435, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.327232, "energy": 79.644912, "activity_lines": [ 43.924333, 43.539636, 43.0725, 42.946011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.380001, "volume": 16725, "typical_volume": 11327.9, "trend": 42.806333, "fair_value": 40.708654, "relative_strength": -8.119035, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.513341, "energy": 81.668363, "activity_lines": [ 44.163, 43.742, 43.213214, 43.053118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.404999, "volume": 25731, "typical_volume": 12199.75, "trend": 42.898333, "fair_value": 40.769583, "relative_strength": -8.359543, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.151776, "energy": 74.784839, "activity_lines": [ 44.288666, 43.914, 43.353214, 43.156258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.23, "volume": 16411, "typical_volume": 12210.15, "trend": 42.996167, "fair_value": 40.833558, "relative_strength": -9.038467, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.245397, "energy": 80.836582, "activity_lines": [ 44.624333, 44.213272, 43.5685, 43.306688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }