{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f7f7ac25-ee65-43d2-98c0-222b11c0cf63", "symbol": "600131", "name": "State Grid Information & Communication Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.238, "architecture_energy": 38.201, "architecture_maturity": 69.848, "architecture_confidence": 88.952, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.0, "rotation_up": 26.92, "upward_expansion": 17.99, "deceleration": 46.78, "rotation_down": 39.77, "downward_expansion": 67.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.208, 15.031091, 15.771333, 16.627425 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.5, "trend_reference": 17.534753, "distance_from_trend": -0.116041, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.318807, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.105019, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.738907, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.201031, "excess_performance": -0.157827, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116041, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034585, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.105019, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126546, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107389, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018857, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.201031, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.800145, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48895939, "relative_activity": 0.865264, "balance": 0.800145, "dry_up": 0.866169, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074988, "annualized_volatility": 0.323506, "from_high_reference": -0.357646, "from_low_reference": 0.133041 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.534753, "fair_value_reference": 17.318807, "structural_low": 13.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.054176, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": 0.004668, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.172705, "worst_return": -0.112125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.071937, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.106209, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.372033, "worst_return": -0.025802, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.239922, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.265012, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.649973, "worst_return": -0.078425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-24", "close": 15.06, "volume": 67871656, "typical_volume": 79024667.25, "trend": 17.575729, "fair_value": 17.360022, "relative_strength": -11.175298, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.235909, "energy": 59.11985, "activity_lines": [ 14.629333, 14.956909, 16.035571, 16.883574 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.66, "volume": 41976563, "typical_volume": 65121286.6, "trend": 17.554584, "fair_value": 17.339386, "relative_strength": -7.694897, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.156764, "energy": 50.085291, "activity_lines": [ 14.973333, 14.990727, 15.895905, 16.759979 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.5, "volume": 48895939, "typical_volume": 56509869.9, "trend": 17.534753, "fair_value": 17.318807, "relative_strength": -10.738907, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.2384, "energy": 38.200563, "activity_lines": [ 15.208, 15.031091, 15.771333, 16.627425 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }