{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f7fa556e-693d-4b6f-9c1b-d31a9a48c75e", "symbol": "WISE", "name": "Wise Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 69.548, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -14.038, "architecture_energy": 10.152, "architecture_maturity": 14.506, "architecture_confidence": 52.329, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.63, "rotation_up": 32.33, "upward_expansion": 11.84, "deceleration": 53.2, "rotation_down": 34.33, "downward_expansion": 41.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 899.36, 899.825455, 916.299047, 921.033978 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 915.8, "trend_reference": 920.49, "distance_from_trend": -0.005095, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 884.048717, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.035916, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.586951, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.018687, "excess_performance": -0.032548, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005095, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000721, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.035916, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191404, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10587, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117113, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018687, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.808408, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13771142, "relative_activity": 1.774662, "balance": 0.808408, "dry_up": 1.418699, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109946, "annualized_volatility": 0.392827, "from_high_reference": -0.21323, "from_low_reference": 0.168112 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 920.49, "fair_value_reference": 884.048717, "structural_low": 784.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.022087, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.023751, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.179613, "worst_return": -0.077573, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.026107, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.042016, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.286767, "worst_return": -0.124606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.055364, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.094866, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.211237, "worst_return": -0.197977, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100193, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048085, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033537, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.091091, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.017439, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", 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"typical_volume": 7759865.5, "trend": 920.49, "fair_value": 884.048717, "relative_strength": -10.586951, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.038224, "energy": 10.15249, "activity_lines": [ 899.36, 899.825455, 916.299047, 921.033978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }