{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f80b852f-a3ba-4ffa-9f1c-dd3921942df7", "symbol": "FTI", "name": "FORTIFAI FPO [FTI]", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 0.242, "architecture_energy": 27.678, "architecture_maturity": 59.929, "architecture_confidence": 73.542, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.46, "rotation_up": 16.75, "upward_expansion": 45.49, "deceleration": 84.73, "rotation_down": 49.83, "downward_expansion": 37.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.600333, 0.726091, 0.745238, 0.688419 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.64, "trend_reference": 0.592333, "distance_from_trend": 0.080473, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.2997, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.13547, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 41.951812, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.666667, "excess_performance": 1.602961, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080473, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.426164, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.13547, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045092, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.419518, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.078945, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.666667, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.433864, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10555060, "relative_activity": 2.343583, "balance": 1.433864, "dry_up": 2.153255, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.265024, "annualized_volatility": 1.362267, "from_high_reference": -0.471074, "from_low_reference": 4.818182 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.592333, "fair_value_reference": 0.2997, "structural_low": 0.22, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.03562, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.875, "worst_return": -0.225807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.728111, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.70065, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.6875, "worst_return": -0.388889, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 1.642857, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 1.602961, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.666667, "worst_return": -0.638889, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"blue", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.399999, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.863888, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.857143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.269231, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.354839, "active": 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15319700, "typical_volume": 4050702.3, "trend": 0.581833, "fair_value": 0.300139, "relative_strength": 29.669776, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.505717, "energy": 27.146183, "activity_lines": [ 0.626, 0.756, 0.750881, 0.684667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.64, "volume": 10555060, "typical_volume": 4503812.4, "trend": 0.592333, "fair_value": 0.2997, "relative_strength": 41.951812, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.241936, "energy": 27.678195, "activity_lines": [ 0.600333, 0.726091, 0.745238, 0.688419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }