{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f80e28fb-df19-400e-bba5-5b1264ca8b85", "symbol": "FNK", "name": "FIRST TRUST MID CAP VALUE ALPHADEX FUND", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.592, "architecture_energy": 83.583, "architecture_maturity": 36.116, "architecture_confidence": 70.29, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.24, "rotation_up": 79.39, "upward_expansion": 94.3, "deceleration": 43.05, "rotation_down": 10.6, "downward_expansion": 18.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 63.356427, 62.560973, 61.271936, 60.440473 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 64.2049, "trend_reference": 59.645089, "distance_from_trend": 0.076449, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 52.212707, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.22968, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.431163, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.057471, "excess_performance": -0.129982, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076449, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039214, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.22968, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064631, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024312, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083104, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057471, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.975007, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22244, "relative_activity": 0.716094, "balance": 1.975007, "dry_up": 0.478729, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023598, "annualized_volatility": 0.134457, "from_high_reference": -0.008074, "from_low_reference": 0.246842 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.645089, "fair_value_reference": 52.212707, "structural_low": 55.136256, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.002605, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018354, "regime_survival": 0.735294, "best_return": 0.093437, "worst_return": -0.087262, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.012168, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.055691, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.064246, "worst_return": -0.112053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.073649, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.06438, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.092425, "worst_return": -0.020147, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 62.9819, "volume": 13099, "typical_volume": 32375.6, "trend": 59.193836, "fair_value": 51.985651, "relative_strength": 1.094293, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.722374, "energy": 77.683817, "activity_lines": [ 62.329073, 61.604604, 60.473936, 59.862834 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 63.3844, "volume": 9380, "typical_volume": 31429.35, "trend": 59.442066, "fair_value": 52.095658, "relative_strength": 1.189916, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.557154, "energy": 75.225069, "activity_lines": [ 62.759427, 62.047008, 60.851084, 60.133193 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 64.2049, "volume": 22244, "typical_volume": 31062.95, "trend": 59.645089, "fair_value": 52.212707, "relative_strength": -2.431163, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.592049, "energy": 83.583063, "activity_lines": [ 63.356427, 62.560973, 61.271936, 60.440473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }