{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f80f25f5-95e8-4a27-823d-717ca5a08ebf", "symbol": "00903", "name": "Fubon Solactive Metaverse ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.084, "architecture_energy": 29.478, "architecture_maturity": 75.435, "architecture_confidence": 75.763, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.21, "rotation_up": 29.98, "upward_expansion": 56.43, "deceleration": 91.09, "rotation_down": 27.43, "downward_expansion": 20.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.800667, 20.849273, 20.753429, 19.877527 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 21.440001, "trend_reference": 18.869333, "distance_from_trend": 0.136235, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.08609, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.421177, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.340868, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.214731, "excess_performance": -0.164581, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.136235, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067814, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.421177, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009102, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123409, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058231, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.214731, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.32057, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1880311, "relative_activity": 0.960741, "balance": 1.32057, "dry_up": 1.07581, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048507, "annualized_volatility": 0.320922, "from_high_reference": -0.085714, "from_low_reference": 0.468493 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.869333, "fair_value_reference": 15.08609, "structural_low": 14.6, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.020452, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.006864, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.046185, "worst_return": -0.101541, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.031304, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.017589, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.115535, "worst_return": -0.059814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.116562, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.036693, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.328107, "worst_return": -0.067043, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.079466, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042746, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020497, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026713, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007995, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045056, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.221135, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.079365, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0355, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014191, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 12.69, "volume": 10608121, "typical_volume": 10780321.3, "trend": 10.505667, "fair_value": 10.7285, "relative_strength": 15.740136, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"relative_strength": -17.767869, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.020522, "energy": 38.254096, "activity_lines": [ 20.953333, 21.339454, 20.232714, 19.339935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.52, "volume": 2872384, "typical_volume": 1932955.15, "trend": 18.545, "fair_value": 14.930641, "relative_strength": -14.680578, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.664771, "energy": 29.909966, "activity_lines": [ 20.788666, 21.174363, 20.378476, 19.473183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.41, "volume": 693373, "typical_volume": 1871763.15, "trend": 18.649333, "fair_value": 14.97859, "relative_strength": -16.51177, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.787695, "energy": 28.244364, "activity_lines": [ 20.640666, 20.982727, 20.492762, 19.593505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.35, "volume": 2976000, "typical_volume": 1911600.0, "trend": 18.738333, "fair_value": 15.028462, "relative_strength": -15.173964, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.632098, "energy": 22.796677, "activity_lines": [ 20.543333, 20.804727, 20.581238, 19.703226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.440001, "volume": 1880311, "typical_volume": 1957146.05, "trend": 18.869333, "fair_value": 15.08609, "relative_strength": -12.340868, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.083903, "energy": 29.478468, "activity_lines": [ 20.800667, 20.849273, 20.753429, 19.877527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }