{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f8117489-c4ad-4569-b180-a811a50c12e2", "symbol": "LOCAL", "name": "Solocal Group S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 62.233, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.313, "architecture_energy": 10.649, "architecture_maturity": 18.326, "architecture_confidence": 85.659, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 68.22, "rotation_up": 32.04, "upward_expansion": 27.09, "deceleration": 44.72, "rotation_down": 19.46, "downward_expansion": 44.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.106333, 4.064636, 4.058095, 4.113323 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.13, "trend_reference": 4.205667, "distance_from_trend": -0.017992, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.431776, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.239659, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.669162, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.109914, "excess_performance": -0.163225, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017992, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036644, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.239659, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059968, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036692, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16285, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.109914, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.819861, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59791, "relative_activity": 1.336312, "balance": 0.819861, "dry_up": 2.184165, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05122, "annualized_volatility": 0.23297, "from_high_reference": -0.174, "from_low_reference": 0.376667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.205667, "fair_value_reference": 5.431776, "structural_low": 3.8, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.021765, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.080954, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.021765, "worst_return": 0.021765, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.119882, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.189771, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.119882, "worst_return": -0.119882, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.136293, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.153755, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.136293, "worst_return": -0.136293, "sufficient": false }, { 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"fair_value": 5.660451, "relative_strength": -4.0487, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.392647, "energy": 59.051693, "activity_lines": [ 3.937333, 3.985909, 4.082452, 4.151151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 4.1, "volume": 16496, "typical_volume": 53510.45, "trend": 4.175167, "fair_value": 5.619393, "relative_strength": -0.631773, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.609171, "energy": 40.000733, "activity_lines": [ 3.982333, 3.998, 4.073857, 4.147763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.065, "volume": 27638, "typical_volume": 39497.05, "trend": 4.193, "fair_value": 5.579664, "relative_strength": -0.034877, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.585148, "energy": 22.427029, "activity_lines": [ 4.015333, 4.003909, 4.064429, 4.140656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.05, "volume": 91381, "typical_volume": 37790.7, "trend": 4.204667, "fair_value": 5.536835, "relative_strength": -0.925935, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.08411, "energy": 19.318493, "activity_lines": [ 4.039, 4.009545, 4.055071, 4.13143 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.02, "volume": 33371, "typical_volume": 34963.95, "trend": 4.202667, "fair_value": 5.497855, "relative_strength": -2.568534, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.269831, "energy": 18.421815, "activity_lines": [ 4.038333, 4.013, 4.045381, 4.119516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.18, "volume": 206364, "typical_volume": 43525.1, "trend": 4.203333, "fair_value": 5.464872, "relative_strength": -0.442689, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.113477, "energy": 14.085644, "activity_lines": [ 4.090667, 4.045364, 4.053571, 4.118054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.13, "volume": 59791, "typical_volume": 44743.3, "trend": 4.205667, "fair_value": 5.431776, "relative_strength": -3.669162, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.313041, "energy": 10.649486, "activity_lines": [ 4.106333, 4.064636, 4.058095, 4.113323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }