{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f814bcd9-0258-4ceb-983d-e55099fc1a83", "symbol": "MDIN", "name": "Modiin Energy-Limited Partnership", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 67.025, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -6.781, "architecture_energy": 14.78, "architecture_maturity": 37.827, "architecture_confidence": 63.099, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.19, "rotation_up": 18.31, "upward_expansion": 25.32, "deceleration": 73.67, "rotation_down": 47.49, "downward_expansion": 29.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.9988, 1.932873, 16.228648, 15.028594 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.974, "trend_reference": 12.0557, "distance_from_trend": -0.83626, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.676788, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.463118, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -72.329945, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.530769, "excess_performance": 1.501869, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.83626, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032381, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.463118, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.595895, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.723299, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.934282, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.530769, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.942747, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2873262, "relative_activity": 2.35055, "balance": 0.942747, "dry_up": 1.602286, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 14.024043, "annualized_volatility": 8.932698, "from_high_reference": -0.989154, "from_low_reference": 2.084375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.0557, "fair_value_reference": 3.676788, "structural_low": 0.701, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.003494, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.038204, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.261933, "worst_return": -0.141672, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.039813, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043282, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.159649, "worst_return": -0.080024, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.051834, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.234364, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.116842, "worst_return": -0.22051, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040362, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009734, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043814, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.144695, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.455416, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059655, "active": false }, { "regime": 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-22.061435, "energy": 32.967464, "activity_lines": [ 1.745733, 21.9844, 22.122529, 17.583804 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.152, "volume": 3227627, "typical_volume": 1393207.4, "trend": 11.923633, "fair_value": 3.683987, "relative_strength": -69.623948, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.148805, "energy": 28.551797, "activity_lines": [ 1.868067, 16.267236, 20.6655, 16.956463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.115, "volume": 954616, "typical_volume": 1192383.75, "trend": 11.970133, "fair_value": 3.682244, "relative_strength": -70.940084, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.661789, "energy": 22.834661, "activity_lines": [ 1.966133, 10.539145, 19.200767, 16.323647 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.935, "volume": 778894, "typical_volume": 1126291.7, "trend": 12.0122, "fair_value": 3.679571, "relative_strength": -72.743089, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.367988, "energy": 19.719928, "activity_lines": [ 1.9846, 4.771873, 17.714972, 15.676219 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.974, "volume": 2873262, "typical_volume": 1222378.6, "trend": 12.0557, "fair_value": 3.676788, "relative_strength": -72.329945, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.780672, "energy": 14.779859, "activity_lines": [ 1.9988, 1.932873, 16.228648, 15.028594 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }