{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f81e289b-dd49-4b6b-afa2-5a276aca0301", "symbol": "00733", "name": "Fubon Taiwan Small-Mid Cap Alpha Momentum 50 ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 0.902, "architecture_energy": 26.044, "architecture_maturity": 62.859, "architecture_confidence": 74.051, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.99, "rotation_up": 16.94, "upward_expansion": 45.26, "deceleration": 85.09, "rotation_down": 48.63, "downward_expansion": 36.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 62.643334, 67.009091, 68.236586, 65.81589 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 63.200001, "trend_reference": 61.765083, "distance_from_trend": 0.023232, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.842231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.243061, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.067757, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.256963, "excess_performance": -0.122349, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023232, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149215, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.243061, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099988, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.130678, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062751, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.256963, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.626012, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4216742, "relative_activity": 0.759426, "balance": 0.626012, "dry_up": 1.300204, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109055, "annualized_volatility": 0.462561, "from_high_reference": -0.207026, "from_low_reference": 0.597512 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.765083, "fair_value_reference": 50.842231, "structural_low": 46.911403, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.029908, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.031944, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.095176, "worst_return": -0.061287, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.055939, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.020671, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.191563, "worst_return": -0.093507, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.209191, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.029298, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.732314, "worst_return": -0.035167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 5561950, "typical_volume": 5488073.05, "trend": 60.796461, "fair_value": 50.724235, "relative_strength": -11.922667, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.833813, "energy": 18.319621, "activity_lines": [ 68.379999, 71.055454, 69.360435, 65.88663 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.700001, "volume": 10834618, "typical_volume": 5641704.5, "trend": 61.200003, "fair_value": 50.764651, "relative_strength": -18.863051, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -14.896476, "energy": 27.482532, "activity_lines": [ 64.083333, 68.39909, 68.543186, 65.686858 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.200001, "volume": 4216742, "typical_volume": 5552535.1, "trend": 61.765083, "fair_value": 50.842231, "relative_strength": -13.067757, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.901766, "energy": 26.04441, "activity_lines": [ 62.643334, 67.009091, 68.236586, 65.81589 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }