{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f8236a80-5f7b-42e8-8706-804b9ab10744", "symbol": "002743", "name": "Anhui Fuhuang Steel Structure Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.189, "architecture_energy": 63.35, "architecture_maturity": 43.228, "architecture_confidence": 89.936, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.92, "rotation_up": 17.91, "upward_expansion": 11.45, "deceleration": 53.85, "rotation_down": 65.56, "downward_expansion": 84.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.666, 3.806, 4.240333, 4.57514 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.87, "trend_reference": 4.991667, "distance_from_trend": -0.224708, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.297523, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.26947, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.524009, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.328125, "excess_performance": -0.335525, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.224708, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091984, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.26947, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.280516, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.29524, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037783, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.328125, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.310476, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43092702, "relative_activity": 1.156113, "balance": 0.310476, "dry_up": 1.44435, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111906, "annualized_volatility": 0.43939, "from_high_reference": -0.414523, "from_low_reference": 0.228571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.991667, "fair_value_reference": 5.297523, "structural_low": 3.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.003478, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": 0.005376, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.152355, "worst_return": -0.121428, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.00189, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.025588, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.550136, "worst_return": -0.148002, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.008362, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.019547, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.623306, "worst_return": -0.13426, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.79094, "energy": 89.581077, "activity_lines": [ 3.664, 3.945455, 4.426619, 4.74529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.64, "volume": 44217304, "typical_volume": 41601161.1, "trend": 5.044, "fair_value": 5.309061, "relative_strength": -31.099405, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.230464, "energy": 75.578241, "activity_lines": [ 3.617333, 3.840909, 4.316524, 4.650882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.87, "volume": 43092702, "typical_volume": 37273775.45, "trend": 4.991667, "fair_value": 5.297523, "relative_strength": -29.524009, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.188729, "energy": 63.349976, "activity_lines": [ 3.666, 3.806, 4.240333, 4.57514 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }