{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f82486a6-4c9d-4ad9-8d2d-f8407a296a19", "symbol": "300737", "name": "Keshun Waterproof Technolgies Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.994, "architecture_energy": 75.769, "architecture_maturity": 19.029, "architecture_confidence": 80.503, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.66, "rotation_up": 8.36, "upward_expansion": 17.19, "deceleration": 37.09, "rotation_down": 77.47, "downward_expansion": 92.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.969333, 5.599273, 6.274654, 6.415178 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.13, "trend_reference": 6.517261, "distance_from_trend": -0.212859, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.336146, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.038632, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.847804, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.273597, "excess_performance": -0.280996, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.212859, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053379, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.038632, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.361319, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.158478, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.244242, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.273597, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.9432, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 113185952, "relative_activity": 0.887581, "balance": 0.9432, "dry_up": 1.045093, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.206433, "annualized_volatility": 0.777831, "from_high_reference": -0.428731, "from_low_reference": 0.165909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.517261, "fair_value_reference": 5.336146, "structural_low": 4.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.00273, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.004762, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.219114, "worst_return": -0.212978, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.010502, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.036598, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.452606, "worst_return": -0.253582, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.067096, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.084357, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.150642, "worst_return": -0.323882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-17", "close": 4.93, "volume": 143775217, "typical_volume": 131762149.3, "trend": 6.578123, "fair_value": 5.404729, "relative_strength": -16.929481, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.628424, "energy": 37.807995, "activity_lines": [ 6.002, 6.610447, 6.779464, 6.743983 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.55, "volume": 148567212, "typical_volume": 129605678.05, "trend": 6.550259, "fair_value": 5.381928, "relative_strength": -23.289474, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.47631, "energy": 66.657175, "activity_lines": [ 5.369333, 6.164341, 6.572708, 6.613137 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.88, "volume": 127560553, "typical_volume": 128948236.7, "trend": 6.528105, "fair_value": 5.360425, "relative_strength": -16.086609, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.962035, "energy": 77.425296, "activity_lines": [ 5.055333, 5.835455, 6.407927, 6.505378 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.13, "volume": 113185952, "typical_volume": 127521861.95, "trend": 6.517261, "fair_value": 5.336146, "relative_strength": -15.847804, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.993623, "energy": 75.769495, "activity_lines": [ 4.969333, 5.599273, 6.274654, 6.415178 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }