{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f826de12-479a-4c23-b647-2b3f1a5943ed", "symbol": "DANC", "name": "Desjardins Market Neutral ETF CA$ Unhedged", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 58.027, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.265, "architecture_energy": 80.895, "architecture_maturity": 2.543, "architecture_confidence": 75.311, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.39, "rotation_up": 8.06, "upward_expansion": 18.06, "deceleration": 37.07, "rotation_down": 80.49, "downward_expansion": 93.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.144, 22.212727, 22.272, 22.275806 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 22.129999, "trend_reference": 22.281333, "distance_from_trend": -0.006792, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.009185, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.005489, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.834945, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.008068, "excess_performance": -0.128489, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006792, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 6e-05, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.005489, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016501, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118349, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004808, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008068, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.215385, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100, "relative_activity": 0.030441, "balance": 1.215385, "dry_up": 0.517504, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003928, "annualized_volatility": 0.020228, "from_high_reference": -0.016444, "from_low_reference": 0.005909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.281333, "fair_value_reference": 22.009185, "structural_low": 22.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.00035, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.010516, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.003596, "worst_return": -0.007182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.000698, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001976, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.006306, "worst_return": -0.010179, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.000901, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.003974, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.004697, "worst_return": -0.013885, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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22.360364, 22.316905, 22.306129 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 22.379999, "volume": 4200, "typical_volume": 4710.0, "trend": 22.297667, "fair_value": 21.938547, "relative_strength": -10.637561, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.609669, "energy": 52.289523, "activity_lines": [ 22.378, 22.366909, 22.325286, 22.311828 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 22.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4605.0, "trend": 22.304, "fair_value": 21.950111, "relative_strength": -10.106225, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.084456, "energy": 43.425395, "activity_lines": [ 22.385333, 22.375091, 22.335191, 22.31843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 22.280001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4580.0, "trend": 22.305, "fair_value": 21.960906, "relative_strength": -10.793122, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.619756, "energy": 17.038529, "activity_lines": [ 22.349334, 22.36, 22.333238, 22.316882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.32, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 4340.0, "trend": 22.306667, "fair_value": 21.971833, "relative_strength": -10.300972, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.160891, "energy": 17.560426, "activity_lines": [ 22.336667, 22.353091, 22.335, 22.31785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.200001, "volume": 4100, "typical_volume": 4350.0, "trend": 22.303333, "fair_value": 21.981991, "relative_strength": -10.211708, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.224286, "energy": 30.268249, "activity_lines": [ 22.286667, 22.324182, 22.324953, 22.310968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.049999, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 3510.0, "trend": 22.293667, "fair_value": 21.990629, "relative_strength": -10.619228, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.541136, "energy": 63.236452, "activity_lines": [ 22.198, 22.270727, 22.300619, 22.294624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.16, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 3360.0, "trend": 22.288, "fair_value": 22.00022, "relative_strength": -9.31534, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.456607, "energy": 71.920693, "activity_lines": [ 22.168, 22.242727, 22.287476, 22.286 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.129999, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 3285.0, "trend": 22.281333, "fair_value": 22.009185, "relative_strength": -11.834945, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.265136, "energy": 80.894896, "activity_lines": [ 22.144, 22.212727, 22.272, 22.275806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }