{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f82c577f-a247-4aab-8c3d-27680fdf3e3c", "symbol": "RY4C", "name": "Ryanair Holdings plc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.394, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.419, "architecture_energy": 22.752, "architecture_maturity": 19.938, "architecture_confidence": 59.299, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.56, "rotation_up": 11.33, "upward_expansion": 9.8, "deceleration": 62.19, "rotation_down": 51.62, "downward_expansion": 64.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.974772, 25.535633, 25.211744, 25.249533 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 25.299999, "trend_reference": 25.674655, "distance_from_trend": -0.014592, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.879447, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.211718, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.835471, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.095459, "excess_performance": -0.160099, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014592, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030737, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.211718, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031274, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.098355, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017015, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.095459, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.052476, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60222, "relative_activity": 0.670084, "balance": 1.052476, "dry_up": 0.874952, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082703, "annualized_volatility": 0.352566, "from_high_reference": -0.153105, "from_low_reference": 0.171839 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.674655, "fair_value_reference": 20.879447, "structural_low": 21.59, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.046088, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.031337, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.190773, "worst_return": -0.154691, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.09672, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.083276, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.336228, "worst_return": -0.120679, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.113926, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.01164, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.374802, "worst_return": -0.220133, "sufficient": true }, { 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.190773, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.109299, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.112418, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.092814, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083304, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020042, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.156457, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01427, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096341, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040388, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.801979, "volume": 58042, "typical_volume": 154226.65, "trend": 14.866665, "fair_value": 14.117572, "relative_strength": 3.908224, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", 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26.092426, 25.342573, 25.523471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.020092, "volume": 133881, "typical_volume": 93446.1, "trend": 25.96001, "fair_value": 20.755787, "relative_strength": -10.579973, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.289244, "energy": 16.302823, "activity_lines": [ 25.749581, 25.827502, 25.239955, 25.387072 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.317861, "volume": 35087, "typical_volume": 91335.9, "trend": 25.789708, "fair_value": 20.813707, "relative_strength": -11.170493, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.494545, "energy": 21.084653, "activity_lines": [ 25.089416, 25.588172, 25.175933, 25.281127 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.299999, "volume": 60222, "typical_volume": 89872.35, "trend": 25.674655, "fair_value": 20.879447, "relative_strength": -9.835471, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.419121, "energy": 22.752071, "activity_lines": [ 24.974772, 25.535633, 25.211744, 25.249533 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }