{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f82cc11c-d123-46fa-909e-002d55c33706", "symbol": "UP", "name": "Wheels Up Experience Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.48, "architecture_energy": 67.579, "architecture_maturity": 92.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.829, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.6, "rotation_up": 10.87, "upward_expansion": 14.23, "deceleration": 37.7, "rotation_down": 72.55, "downward_expansion": 89.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.920667, 6.733273, 7.176314, 7.888809 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.45, "trend_reference": 9.384067, "distance_from_trend": -0.419228, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.618782, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.837888, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -73.268615, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.594856, "excess_performance": -0.720481, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.419228, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.243895, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.837888, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002537, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.732686, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038314, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.594856, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.622238, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 600086, "relative_activity": 0.206978, "balance": 0.622238, "dry_up": 0.169934, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.36086, "annualized_volatility": 1.229209, "from_high_reference": -0.922143, "from_low_reference": 0.162047 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.384067, "fair_value_reference": 33.618782, "structural_low": 4.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.141132, "positive_rate": 0.315789, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": -0.136013, "regime_survival": 0.868421, "best_return": 1.366071, "worst_return": -0.503205, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.100992, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.156934, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 1.072727, "worst_return": -0.720885, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.404959, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.46228, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.709091, "worst_return": -0.773094, "sufficient": true }, { 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8.042429, 8.952955 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.32, "volume": 604395, "typical_volume": 4356794.8, "trend": 10.145667, "fair_value": 34.223526, "relative_strength": -70.175119, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.988671, "energy": 30.096533, "activity_lines": [ 7.58, 7.799273, 7.829371, 8.691303 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.06, "volume": 438998, "typical_volume": 3693006.45, "trend": 9.899933, "fair_value": 33.97391, "relative_strength": -70.480238, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.771155, "energy": 36.675921, "activity_lines": [ 6.992667, 7.491818, 7.618181, 8.427712 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.75, "volume": 327268, "typical_volume": 3189897.5, "trend": 9.653067, "fair_value": 33.727436, "relative_strength": -71.581711, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.053296, "energy": 59.73022, "activity_lines": [ 6.420667, 7.109273, 7.40041, 8.159974 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.45, "volume": 600086, "typical_volume": 2899274.7, "trend": 9.384067, "fair_value": 33.618782, "relative_strength": -73.268615, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.479904, "energy": 67.579313, "activity_lines": [ 5.920667, 6.733273, 7.176314, 7.888809 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }