{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f832202c-69d1-44e3-a6a9-2eb38ae6c397", "symbol": "NSI", "name": "NATIONAL SECURITY EMERGING MARKETS INDEX ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.927, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.914, "architecture_energy": 13.659, "architecture_maturity": 17.867, "architecture_confidence": 76.384, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.75, "rotation_up": 28.52, "upward_expansion": 48.74, "deceleration": 78.17, "rotation_down": 30.72, "downward_expansion": 26.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.498873, 37.591642, 37.723723, 37.438373 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 38.1497, "trend_reference": 37.083428, "distance_from_trend": 0.028753, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.265703, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.303563, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.417551, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.035871, "excess_performance": -0.151583, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028753, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042757, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.303563, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078566, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044176, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044626, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035871, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.723426, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3013, "relative_activity": 0.414272, "balance": 0.723426, "dry_up": 1.214079, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037897, "annualized_volatility": 0.21603, "from_high_reference": -0.042562, "from_low_reference": 0.296123 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.083428, "fair_value_reference": 29.265703, "structural_low": 33.731537, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.210652, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.123339, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.026952, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038093, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-12-08", "close": 23.741726, "volume": 47481, 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"stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.639779, "energy": 11.831928, "activity_lines": [ 37.218733, 37.512338, 37.644785, 37.362284 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.1497, "volume": 3013, "typical_volume": 7273.0, "trend": 37.083428, "fair_value": 29.265703, "relative_strength": -4.417551, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.913977, "energy": 13.659176, "activity_lines": [ 37.498873, 37.591642, 37.723723, 37.438373 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }