{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f832d4dd-ef89-47cb-81f6-9dafd8957f8f", "symbol": "SENZA", "name": "SenzaGen AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.286, "architecture_energy": 24.643, "architecture_maturity": 29.209, "architecture_confidence": 69.994, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.81, "rotation_up": 19.93, "upward_expansion": 10.58, "deceleration": 52.81, "rotation_down": 59.15, "downward_expansion": 47.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.309333, 5.452364, 5.479095, 5.443269 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.28, "trend_reference": 5.454333, "distance_from_trend": -0.031962, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.473141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.184322, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.422104, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.05036, "excess_performance": -0.111854, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031962, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039448, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.184322, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001159, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.184221, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083055, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.05036, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.588466, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48802, "relative_activity": 0.744434, "balance": 0.588466, "dry_up": 0.58806, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078089, "annualized_volatility": 0.310479, "from_high_reference": -0.22807, "from_low_reference": 0.147826 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.454333, "fair_value_reference": 6.473141, "structural_low": 4.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.025556, "positive_rate": 0.277778, "directional_follow_through": 0.277778, "median_excess_return": -0.026192, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.084806, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.118561, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.112392, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.130909, "worst_return": -0.21958, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.08125, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.111929, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.090909, "worst_return": -0.367273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.170667, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.266079, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.126482, "worst_return": -0.352941, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.165, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.251078, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.202797, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.026549, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021818, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.023891, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063758, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071942, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003521, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.029412, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 9.22, "volume": 47400, "typical_volume": 37052.65, "trend": 11.11, "fair_value": 13.371667, "relative_strength": -22.062279, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", 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"activity_lines": [ 5.729333, 5.626909, 5.493952, 5.492108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.7, "volume": 86173, "typical_volume": 83278.2, "trend": 5.549, "fair_value": 6.607051, "relative_strength": -10.049992, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.731114, "energy": 23.795956, "activity_lines": [ 5.729333, 5.650909, 5.520667, 5.500903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.34, "volume": 42012, "typical_volume": 81953.65, "trend": 5.525, "fair_value": 6.572692, "relative_strength": -14.562737, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.513677, "energy": 8.418121, "activity_lines": [ 5.605333, 5.604364, 5.514333, 5.487419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.3, "volume": 20450, "typical_volume": 77966.15, "trend": 5.502333, "fair_value": 6.538718, "relative_strength": -16.274516, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.131844, "energy": 5.257475, "activity_lines": [ 5.498667, 5.556364, 5.50581, 5.472903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.24, "volume": 42939, "typical_volume": 69705.2, "trend": 5.477, "fair_value": 6.503397, "relative_strength": -17.933528, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.425227, "energy": 16.972945, "activity_lines": [ 5.385333, 5.5, 5.491476, 5.455978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.28, "volume": 48802, "typical_volume": 65555.85, "trend": 5.454333, "fair_value": 6.473141, "relative_strength": -18.422104, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.286009, "energy": 24.64349, "activity_lines": [ 5.309333, 5.452364, 5.479095, 5.443269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }