{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f8353677-3cbc-4c2d-ac28-b131bcdefb9c", "symbol": "8230", "name": "Al Rajhi Company for Cooperative Insurance", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.837, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -1.187, "architecture_energy": 21.22, "architecture_maturity": 36.159, "architecture_confidence": 89.2, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.2, "rotation_up": 14.66, "upward_expansion": 42.71, "deceleration": 78.09, "rotation_down": 47.32, "downward_expansion": 39.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.254, 51.738364, 53.059333, 52.05029 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 51.099998, "trend_reference": 49.531, "distance_from_trend": 0.031677, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 60.013301, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.148522, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.428218, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.296132, "excess_performance": 0.327961, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031677, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064324, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.148522, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074295, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.024282, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00015, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.296132, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.200754, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1869686, "relative_activity": 0.720112, "balance": 1.200754, "dry_up": 0.713818, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071052, "annualized_volatility": 0.422596, "from_high_reference": -0.175141, "from_low_reference": 0.514074 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.531, "fair_value_reference": 60.013301, "structural_low": 33.75, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.021719, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.030271, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.554054, "worst_return": -0.099679, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.162221, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.125866, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.081942, "worst_return": -0.135048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.122165, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.07765, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.820084, "worst_return": -0.241517, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.092457, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125432, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.206349, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093854, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.038716, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-08", 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"trend": 48.0675, "fair_value": 59.478237, "relative_strength": 2.10444, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.380354, "energy": 21.119324, "activity_lines": [ 53.83, 54.605455, 54.210953, 51.660215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.68, "volume": 1066912, "typical_volume": 3269147.05, "trend": 48.422667, "fair_value": 59.605673, "relative_strength": -0.278043, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.411237, "energy": 19.924063, "activity_lines": [ 51.953333, 53.735455, 53.949881, 51.764247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.150002, "volume": 2203441, "typical_volume": 3041588.8, "trend": 48.810167, "fair_value": 59.749199, "relative_strength": 2.222323, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.522516, "energy": 23.020679, "activity_lines": [ 51.191334, 53.200364, 53.769619, 51.940205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.5, "volume": 2273341, "typical_volume": 2584921.95, "trend": 49.0835, "fair_value": 59.87266, "relative_strength": -0.777978, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -11.921904, "energy": 27.701585, "activity_lines": [ 50.102667, 52.192546, 53.288286, 51.920194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.099998, "volume": 1869686, "typical_volume": 2596382.75, "trend": 49.531, "fair_value": 60.013301, "relative_strength": 2.428218, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.187179, "energy": 21.219638, "activity_lines": [ 50.254, 51.738364, 53.059333, 52.05029 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }