{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f8372bb9-c08e-4ac4-89c0-31a8cf91e870", "symbol": "1832", "name": "Sadr Logistics Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.305, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.865, "architecture_energy": 59.163, "architecture_maturity": 6.376, "architecture_confidence": 84.532, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.03, "rotation_up": 12.71, "upward_expansion": 15.5, "deceleration": 34.71, "rotation_down": 65.77, "downward_expansion": 86.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.539333, 2.583818, 2.624286, 2.628968 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.57, "trend_reference": 2.648667, "distance_from_trend": -0.0297, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.109551, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.173514, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.745612, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.058608, "excess_performance": -0.026779, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0297, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018528, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.173514, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021483, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047456, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0232, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.058608, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.858601, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7426342, "relative_activity": 0.805952, "balance": 0.858601, "dry_up": 0.836739, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045495, "annualized_volatility": 0.176079, "from_high_reference": -0.189274, "from_low_reference": 0.088983 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.648667, "fair_value_reference": 3.109551, "structural_low": 2.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.008845, "positive_rate": 0.535714, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": 3.9e-05, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.386423, "worst_return": -0.190073, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.020186, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.043273, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.163121, "worst_return": -0.205186, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.003145, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026806, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.08982, "worst_return": -0.079634, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.178392, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01497, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084058, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080745, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.079646, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.057823, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.01444, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083942, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03629, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 3.64, "volume": 6336801, "typical_volume": 4392048.25, "trend": 3.776333, "fair_value": 5.464607, "relative_strength": -10.473209, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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"fair_value": 3.134487, "relative_strength": -2.949905, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.043534, "energy": 21.43202, "activity_lines": [ 2.629333, 2.650364, 2.657381, 2.655656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.51, "volume": 5248303, "typical_volume": 8793245.6, "trend": 2.657333, "fair_value": 3.125385, "relative_strength": -7.080497, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.343748, "energy": 51.630637, "activity_lines": [ 2.584667, 2.623273, 2.645476, 2.645785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.48, "volume": 5505788, "typical_volume": 8877715.2, "trend": 2.653333, "fair_value": 3.116731, "relative_strength": -6.118703, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.22484, "energy": 65.89377, "activity_lines": [ 2.541333, 2.594, 2.630619, 2.634344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.57, "volume": 7426342, "typical_volume": 9214377.55, "trend": 2.648667, "fair_value": 3.109551, "relative_strength": -4.745612, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.864657, "energy": 59.162633, "activity_lines": [ 2.539333, 2.583818, 2.624286, 2.628968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }