{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f83d4412-6a3f-47f3-bc7b-fcf25d9796f7", "symbol": "MAYB-F", "name": "First Trust Vest U.S. Equity Buffer ETF - May", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.248, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.521, "architecture_energy": 48.234, "architecture_maturity": 61.364, "architecture_confidence": 55.253, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.89, "rotation_up": 50.62, "upward_expansion": 76.94, "deceleration": 70.63, "rotation_down": 24.98, "downward_expansion": 5.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.764667, 51.650182, 51.456143, 51.037119 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 52.450001, "trend_reference": 50.543334, "distance_from_trend": 0.037723, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.747147, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.172142, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.413713, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.061526, "excess_performance": -0.058895, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037723, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016416, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.172142, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000235, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064137, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003294, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.061526, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.126582, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.126582, "dry_up": 0.336735, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01273, "annualized_volatility": 0.091441, "from_high_reference": -0.00342, "from_low_reference": 0.104211 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.543334, "fair_value_reference": 44.747147, "structural_low": 47.77, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.006427, "positive_rate": 0.710526, "directional_follow_through": 0.710526, "median_excess_return": -0.009737, "regime_survival": 0.815789, "best_return": 0.035505, "worst_return": -0.049624, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.032027, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.027046, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.065917, "worst_return": -0.02598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.061747, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.037413, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.101626, "worst_return": -0.029785, "sufficient": true 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{ "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044512, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079981, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012241, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030449, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.021661, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", 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51.540667, 51.465273, 50.870857, 50.515936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 51.200001, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 6450.0, "trend": 50.181, "fair_value": 44.293622, "relative_strength": -7.29223, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.398521, "energy": 42.95952, "activity_lines": [ 51.409334, 51.442182, 50.948857, 50.58585 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 51.860001, "volume": 2400, "typical_volume": 6520.0, "trend": 50.261667, "fair_value": 44.385737, "relative_strength": -5.935483, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.670839, "energy": 57.905532, "activity_lines": [ 51.534001, 51.530364, 51.082096, 50.694172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 51.900002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4620.0, "trend": 50.345334, "fair_value": 44.476891, "relative_strength": -5.454427, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.986813, "energy": 52.016706, "activity_lines": [ 51.666668, 51.609092, 51.20881, 50.799871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.119999, "volume": 6000, "typical_volume": 4920.0, "trend": 50.394, "fair_value": 44.561314, "relative_strength": -6.82993, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.170608, "energy": 38.070805, "activity_lines": [ 51.480667, 51.530182, 51.251381, 50.84985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.299999, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 4905.0, "trend": 50.453334, "fair_value": 44.650545, "relative_strength": -5.776914, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.812517, "energy": 34.130091, "activity_lines": [ 51.44, 51.483818, 51.304096, 50.908301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.450001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4900.0, "trend": 50.543334, "fair_value": 44.747147, "relative_strength": -6.413713, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.521071, "energy": 48.233524, "activity_lines": [ 51.764667, 51.650182, 51.456143, 51.037119 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }