{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f8467b2e-265d-45f4-a5a0-480fbd57b8cd", "symbol": "RIEM", "name": "L&G Emerging Markets Equity UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.651, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.048, "architecture_energy": 24.747, "architecture_maturity": 61.546, "architecture_confidence": 82.409, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.64, "rotation_up": 25.1, "upward_expansion": 58.73, "deceleration": 88.28, "rotation_down": 34.66, "downward_expansion": 22.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.245467, 17.458109, 17.360143, 16.974529 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.294001, "trend_reference": 16.364067, "distance_from_trend": 0.056828, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.812495, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.349776, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.548216, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.14545, "excess_performance": -0.025442, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056828, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084541, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.349776, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076337, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.015482, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16615, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.14545, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.605257, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9926, "relative_activity": 3.260627, "balance": 0.605257, "dry_up": 1.362591, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030122, "annualized_volatility": 0.213678, "from_high_reference": -0.062656, "from_low_reference": 0.627824 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.364067, "fair_value_reference": 12.812495, "structural_low": 14.83, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.220169, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-07-12", "close": 11.546, "volume": 1105, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-07-19", "close": 11.108, "volume": 1177, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, 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16.791462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.194, "volume": 1214, "typical_volume": 2288.65, "trend": 16.144867, "fair_value": 12.733626, "relative_strength": 5.474884, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.153231, "energy": 48.225277, "activity_lines": [ 17.676133, 17.675273, 17.334895, 16.866568 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.77, "volume": 5452, "typical_volume": 2560.9, "trend": 16.245733, "fair_value": 12.771, "relative_strength": 1.797409, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.801419, "energy": 22.36704, "activity_lines": [ 17.3276, 17.515382, 17.325647, 16.906899 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.294001, "volume": 9926, "typical_volume": 3044.2, "trend": 16.364067, "fair_value": 12.812495, "relative_strength": 1.548216, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.048403, "energy": 24.747054, "activity_lines": [ 17.245467, 17.458109, 17.360143, 16.974529 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }