{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f848edc1-6335-45ed-bf85-8a5494774cc1", "symbol": "FFDI", "name": "FIDELITY FUNDAMENTAL DEVELOPED INTERNATIONAL ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.733, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.789, "architecture_energy": 39.271, "architecture_maturity": 19.17, "architecture_confidence": 61.095, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.34, "rotation_up": 45.95, "upward_expansion": 70.96, "deceleration": 61.79, "rotation_down": 24.68, "downward_expansion": 8.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.49936, 32.41015, 32.084161, 31.697493 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 33.3374, "trend_reference": 31.347793, "distance_from_trend": 0.063469, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.768613, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.158811, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.707944, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.064828, "excess_performance": -0.060797, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063469, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029345, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.158811, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033448, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.027079, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021904, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.064828, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.628111, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8966, "relative_activity": 0.706889, "balance": 1.628111, "dry_up": 0.921336, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0294, "annualized_volatility": 0.19316, "from_high_reference": -0.001426, "from_low_reference": 0.185947 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.347793, "fair_value_reference": 28.768613, "structural_low": 28.110371, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.115329, "energy": 24.21736, "activity_lines": [ 32.09012, 32.151573, 31.801692, 31.492305 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.2985, "volume": 23877, "typical_volume": 12897.0, "trend": 31.263254, "fair_value": 28.717279, "relative_strength": -2.55364, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.283603, "energy": 21.155529, "activity_lines": [ 32.128107, 32.192712, 31.90073, 31.563677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.3374, "volume": 8966, "typical_volume": 12683.75, "trend": 31.347793, "fair_value": 28.768613, "relative_strength": -2.707944, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.789348, "energy": 39.271217, "activity_lines": [ 32.49936, 32.41015, 32.084161, 31.697493 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }