{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f84d7143-1300-43a5-a802-131316cfc2fa", "symbol": "ALPHAX", "name": "Alpha Divisions Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.14, "architecture_energy": 65.76, "architecture_maturity": 63.841, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 27.0, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 57.76, "rotation_down": 60.26, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.24, 0.250545, 0.278333, 0.31628 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.24, "trend_reference": 0.368333, "distance_from_trend": -0.348416, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.529161, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.546452, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.103686, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.510204, "excess_performance": -0.702529, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.348416, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10671, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.546452, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159782, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.451037, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19471, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.510204, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.129004, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40101700, "relative_activity": 1.269931, "balance": 0.129004, "dry_up": 0.743931, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11859, "annualized_volatility": 0.48753, "from_high_reference": -0.6, "from_low_reference": 0.090909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.368333, "fair_value_reference": 0.529161, "structural_low": 0.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.017857, "positive_rate": 0.393939, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.022559, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.58, "worst_return": -0.208333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.034245, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.073312, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.509091, "worst_return": -0.245902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.083969, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.104238, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.482143, "worst_return": -0.30303, "sufficient": true }, { 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"close": 0.25, "volume": 35065300, "typical_volume": 37302815.0, "trend": 0.397333, "fair_value": 0.542879, "relative_strength": -45.88863, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.635659, "energy": 86.617225, "activity_lines": [ 0.266667, 0.276909, 0.316762, 0.354516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.25, "volume": 25503200, "typical_volume": 37625895.0, "trend": 0.393667, "fair_value": 0.539735, "relative_strength": -45.811401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.435522, "energy": 77.238914, "activity_lines": [ 0.26, 0.269273, 0.306524, 0.345011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.23, "volume": 13070000, "typical_volume": 37058145.0, "trend": 0.385, "fair_value": 0.536583, "relative_strength": -49.581185, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.370156, "energy": 83.65827, "activity_lines": [ 0.248667, 0.259818, 0.295429, 0.334452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.24, "volume": 15292100, "typical_volume": 31661975.0, "trend": 0.376667, "fair_value": 0.533335, "relative_strength": -46.089572, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.501291, "energy": 82.210731, "activity_lines": [ 0.243333, 0.254364, 0.286381, 0.325097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.24, "volume": 40101700, "typical_volume": 31577865.0, "trend": 0.368333, "fair_value": 0.529161, "relative_strength": -45.103686, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.139769, "energy": 65.759787, "activity_lines": [ 0.24, 0.250545, 0.278333, 0.31628 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }