{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f854c28f-d037-409c-bbb5-b9a700cf1b47", "symbol": "HDB", "name": "HDFC Bank Limited ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.541, "architecture_energy": 44.01, "architecture_maturity": 69.411, "architecture_confidence": 78.554, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.99, "rotation_up": 13.87, "upward_expansion": 4.69, "deceleration": 49.31, "rotation_down": 60.71, "downward_expansion": 75.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.904598, 24.428363, 24.494943, 25.171663 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 23.63, "trend_reference": 26.660024, "distance_from_trend": -0.113654, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.112604, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.215279, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.990159, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.302679, "excess_performance": -0.428304, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.113654, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119412, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.215279, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017168, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.309902, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037784, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.302679, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.266695, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38037837, "relative_activity": 0.850731, "balance": 1.266695, "dry_up": 1.07157, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062388, "annualized_volatility": 0.340916, "from_high_reference": -0.365218, "from_low_reference": 0.061275 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.660024, "fair_value_reference": 30.112604, "structural_low": 22.265677, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.005948, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": 0.002727, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.105419, "worst_return": -0.131919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.010892, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.032769, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.223466, "worst_return": -0.157427, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.046381, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.023282, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.181056, "worst_return": -0.192679, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -61.499632, "energy": 37.574712, "activity_lines": [ 24.269857, 24.579307, 24.597941, 25.38633 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.63, "volume": 38037837, "typical_volume": 44711966.45, "trend": 26.660024, "fair_value": 30.112604, "relative_strength": -30.990159, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.540764, "energy": 44.010372, "activity_lines": [ 23.904598, 24.428363, 24.494943, 25.171663 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }