{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f85668fa-c7ca-43d8-8271-c193c56efd3b", "symbol": "SBB", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST SHORT SMALLCAP600 (P/S)", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.352, "architecture_energy": 56.403, "architecture_maturity": 72.014, "architecture_confidence": 88.692, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.79, "rotation_up": 28.2, "upward_expansion": 9.37, "deceleration": 59.52, "rotation_down": 46.92, "downward_expansion": 78.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.38506, 22.447711, 22.930613, 23.52043 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 22.045, "trend_reference": 24.169053, "distance_from_trend": -0.087883, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.28837, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.220704, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.988302, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.099923, "excess_performance": -0.225548, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.087883, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05427, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.220704, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034456, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.229883, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001989, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.099923, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.369635, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4174, "relative_activity": 0.145748, "balance": 0.369635, "dry_up": 0.123479, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029996, "annualized_volatility": 0.152227, "from_high_reference": -0.24075, "from_low_reference": 0.013097 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.169053, "fair_value_reference": 28.28837, "structural_low": 21.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.004454, "positive_rate": 0.354839, "directional_follow_through": 0.645161, "median_excess_return": -0.018649, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.096928, "worst_return": -0.057082, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.008515, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.023288, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.091889, "worst_return": -0.120081, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.027696, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.128352, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.161779, "worst_return": -0.089697, "sufficient": true 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-18.691308, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.434665, "energy": 58.418034, "activity_lines": [ 22.48692, 22.630071, 23.231325, 23.785242 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.5609, "volume": 3484, "typical_volume": 34383.1, "trend": 24.287523, "fair_value": 28.343443, "relative_strength": -19.15286, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.435151, "energy": 52.615173, "activity_lines": [ 22.5353, 22.574916, 23.095748, 23.665109 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.045, "volume": 4174, "typical_volume": 28638.4, "trend": 24.169053, "fair_value": 28.28837, "relative_strength": -22.988302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.351831, "energy": 56.403181, "activity_lines": [ 22.38506, 22.447711, 22.930613, 23.52043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }