{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f85751a2-5323-4ed5-90d1-d4d65d5fcecd", "symbol": "ROOT", "name": "Root Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -10.775, "architecture_energy": 10.193, "architecture_maturity": 20.158, "architecture_confidence": 45.247, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.52, "rotation_up": 23.0, "upward_expansion": 22.53, "deceleration": 64.67, "rotation_down": 43.58, "downward_expansion": 31.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.438, 56.731636, 55.949095, 54.832839 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 51.5, "trend_reference": 55.23, "distance_from_trend": -0.067536, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 66.105801, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.220946, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.635283, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.170425, "excess_performance": -0.357879, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.067536, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111282, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.220946, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129192, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.336353, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123691, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.170425, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.824006, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2044840, "relative_activity": 1.511711, "balance": 0.824006, "dry_up": 0.945073, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.148029, "annualized_volatility": 0.536741, "from_high_reference": -0.507036, "from_low_reference": 0.258861 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.23, "fair_value_reference": 66.105801, "structural_low": 40.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.093935, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.126101, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.795181, "worst_return": -0.224949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 1.091984, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 1.035506, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 5.828221, "worst_return": -0.304306, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 1.379033, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 1.259587, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 6.097137, "worst_return": -0.431481, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 5.027173, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 4.77643, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 9.208835, "worst_return": 0.84551, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.538234, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.26861, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.294477, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071142, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.136273, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055179, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064069, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024586, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.120426, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.088126, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.243992, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121645, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0919, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 9.45, "volume": 499962, "typical_volume": 1530727.5, "trend": 6.472333, "fair_value": 90.925238, "relative_strength": 18.244985, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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56.620667, "fair_value": 65.553494, "relative_strength": -24.026008, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.73904, "energy": 43.054059, "activity_lines": [ 60.033333, 58.163091, 56.116667, 55.286581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.15, "volume": 1117043, "typical_volume": 1327033.2, "trend": 56.062333, "fair_value": 65.835929, "relative_strength": -27.740484, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.821703, "energy": 17.075564, "activity_lines": [ 58.126, 57.658909, 56.18381, 55.127183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.5, "volume": 2044840, "typical_volume": 1352665.85, "trend": 55.23, "fair_value": 66.105801, "relative_strength": -33.635283, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.775158, "energy": 10.192857, "activity_lines": [ 55.438, 56.731636, 55.949095, 54.832839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }