{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f85d8799-fb49-42cc-ba70-38842717acae", "symbol": "E15S", "name": "UBS Core BBG Euro Area Liquid Corp UCITS ETF EUR dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.72, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.434, "architecture_energy": 23.974, "architecture_maturity": 63.266, "architecture_confidence": 76.456, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.8, "rotation_up": 24.92, "upward_expansion": 55.94, "deceleration": 87.86, "rotation_down": 40.72, "downward_expansion": 21.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.463733, 10.482727, 10.473257, 10.458748 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 10.494, "trend_reference": 10.453299, "distance_from_trend": 0.003894, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.010359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.048314, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.925732, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.001076, "excess_performance": -0.171967, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003894, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002558, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.048314, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005768, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.139257, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021267, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001076, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.637727, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12278, "relative_activity": 0.506666, "balance": 1.637727, "dry_up": 0.748464, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005483, "annualized_volatility": 0.037879, "from_high_reference": -0.00719, "from_low_reference": 0.025806 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.453299, "fair_value_reference": 10.010359, "structural_low": 10.23, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.002757, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.004678, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.020883, "worst_return": -0.024275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.010604, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.052946, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.027524, "worst_return": -0.01405, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.020405, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.045412, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.039215, "worst_return": -0.020378, 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{ "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.46, "volume": 22043, "typical_volume": 32661.15, "trend": 10.449126, "fair_value": 9.986663, "relative_strength": -12.380785, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.151246, "energy": 44.171802, "activity_lines": [ 10.506267, 10.501927, 10.467505, 10.45778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.43, "volume": 22364, "typical_volume": 27524.3, "trend": 10.450284, "fair_value": 9.994372, "relative_strength": -12.116911, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.649534, "energy": 14.275874, "activity_lines": [ 10.478133, 10.491418, 10.467171, 10.456546 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.442, "volume": 15865, "typical_volume": 25299.2, "trend": 10.45158, "fair_value": 10.002151, "relative_strength": -12.212649, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.037393, "energy": 20.45667, "activity_lines": [ 10.458267, 10.482291, 10.467962, 10.456011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.494, "volume": 12278, "typical_volume": 24232.95, "trend": 10.453299, "fair_value": 10.010359, "relative_strength": -13.925732, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.433894, "energy": 23.974051, "activity_lines": [ 10.463733, 10.482727, 10.473257, 10.458748 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }