{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f8637efe-cfa8-4f72-b24b-91977791e593", "symbol": "TNH", "name": "Thai Nakarin Hospital Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.467, "architecture_energy": 55.363, "architecture_maturity": 42.566, "architecture_confidence": 88.507, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.74, "rotation_up": 16.43, "upward_expansion": 8.78, "deceleration": 45.15, "rotation_down": 68.69, "downward_expansion": 86.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.733333, 28.959091, 29.297619, 29.65914 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 28.5, "trend_reference": 30.225, "distance_from_trend": -0.057072, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.017106, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.136811, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.809633, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.073171, "excess_performance": -0.265496, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057072, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028125, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.136811, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043732, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.208096, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032297, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.073171, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.012253, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14400, "relative_activity": 0.044552, "balance": 0.012253, "dry_up": 0.071932, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02834, "annualized_volatility": 0.144542, "from_high_reference": -0.179856, "from_low_reference": 0.00885 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.225, "fair_value_reference": 33.017106, "structural_low": 28.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": 0.006136, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.05036, "worst_return": -0.034246, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.007092, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.009529, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.043165, "worst_return": -0.05303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.021583, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.039267, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.028369, "worst_return": -0.015151, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -21.444353, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.958218, "energy": 47.629431, "activity_lines": [ 29.45, 29.581818, 29.829762, 30.208602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 29.0, "volume": 1022900, "typical_volume": 321930.0, "trend": 30.6, "fair_value": 33.137458, "relative_strength": -21.921513, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.459909, "energy": 63.49726, "activity_lines": [ 29.266667, 29.454545, 29.714286, 30.098387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.75, "volume": 57200, "typical_volume": 324275.0, "trend": 30.491667, "fair_value": 33.108512, "relative_strength": -22.870032, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.594137, "energy": 62.43518, "activity_lines": [ 29.066667, 29.3, 29.591667, 29.979032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.0, "volume": 5900, "typical_volume": 323820.0, "trend": 30.391667, "fair_value": 33.079646, "relative_strength": -21.879975, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.992649, "energy": 63.265276, "activity_lines": [ 29.016667, 29.218182, 29.508333, 29.882796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.75, "volume": 15500, "typical_volume": 323930.0, "trend": 30.325, "fair_value": 33.050701, "relative_strength": -21.162159, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.506393, "energy": 60.805828, "activity_lines": [ 28.883333, 29.104545, 29.408333, 29.776882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.5, "volume": 14400, "typical_volume": 323220.0, "trend": 30.225, "fair_value": 33.017106, "relative_strength": -20.809633, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.466925, "energy": 55.362748, "activity_lines": [ 28.733333, 28.959091, 29.297619, 29.65914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }