{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "f8645810-0c40-4cb3-b5c7-557a95812f96",
    "symbol": "HMUS",
    "name": "HSBC MSCI USA QUALITY UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "EBS",
    "country": "CH",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^SSMI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 76.974,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 93.909,
    "architecture_energy": 75.832,
    "architecture_maturity": 56.831,
    "architecture_confidence": 76.24,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 8.74,
        "rotation_up": 64.11,
        "upward_expansion": 85.33,
        "deceleration": 63.75,
        "rotation_down": 27.47,
        "downward_expansion": 12.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        71.202491,
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        69.802899,
        68.529848
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 72.82,
    "trend_reference": 67.155166,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.084354,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 55.828629,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.304349,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 0.748035,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.116576,
    "excess_performance": 0.033693,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.084354,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.034553,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.304349,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.028759,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.00748,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.050089,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.116576,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.350505,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 285,
      "relative_activity": 0.380482,
      "balance": 0.350505,
      "dry_up": 0.755958,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.011579,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.121463,
      "from_high_reference": 0.0,
      "from_low_reference": 0.224459
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 67.155166,
      "fair_value_reference": 55.828629,
      "structural_low": 60.676468,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 40,
        "median_return": 0.014171,
        "positive_rate": 0.675,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.675,
        "median_excess_return": 0.003567,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.062809,
        "worst_return": -0.095861,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": 0.049084,
        "positive_rate": 0.857143,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.857143,
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        "regime_survival": 0.642857,
        "best_return": 0.101298,
        "worst_return": -0.058036,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.003684,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
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        "worst_return": -0.169274,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "worst_return": -0.113754,
        "sufficient": false
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        "color": "amber",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "fair_value": 53.22825,
        "relative_strength": 3.576773,
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
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      },
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        "fair_value": 53.418434,
        "relative_strength": 5.756902,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "fair_value": 53.605431,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "trend": 64.692243,
        "fair_value": 53.7985,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 909.2,
        "trend": 64.912278,
        "fair_value": 53.990025,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 69.75,
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        "typical_volume": 859.85,
        "trend": 65.184028,
        "fair_value": 54.179536,
        "relative_strength": 5.020496,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 76.017808,
        "energy": 89.580693,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "volume": 149,
        "typical_volume": 865.1,
        "trend": 65.420936,
        "fair_value": 54.362256,
        "relative_strength": 2.660316,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "trend": 65.890733,
        "fair_value": 54.726904,
        "relative_strength": -1.758685,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.457903,
        "energy": 83.201121,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 70.689232,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 699.55,
        "trend": 66.098831,
        "fair_value": 54.915117,
        "relative_strength": -1.466916,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "energy": 83.651902,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 650.75,
        "trend": 66.313573,
        "fair_value": 55.09686,
        "relative_strength": -0.1079,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 80.679839,
        "energy": 89.092872,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 70.539467,
        "volume": 49,
        "typical_volume": 653.2,
        "trend": 66.532616,
        "fair_value": 55.276764,
        "relative_strength": -1.127657,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.667334,
        "energy": 88.661795,
        "activity_lines": [
          70.408308,
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          67.674416
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 70.349762,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 652.25,
        "trend": 66.729067,
        "fair_value": 55.451684,
        "relative_strength": -1.245034,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.58319,
        "energy": 83.313167,
        "activity_lines": [
          70.44894,
          70.219447,
          69.060818,
          67.920683
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 70.269997,
        "volume": 1931,
        "typical_volume": 734.8,
        "trend": 66.918874,
        "fair_value": 55.630011,
        "relative_strength": -1.42812,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.51886,
        "energy": 71.195341,
        "activity_lines": [
          70.434333,
          70.263281,
          69.327592,
          68.14913
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 72.82,
        "volume": 285,
        "typical_volume": 749.05,
        "trend": 67.155166,
        "fair_value": 55.828629,
        "relative_strength": 0.748035,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 93.9092,
        "energy": 75.83226,
        "activity_lines": [
          71.202491,
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          68.529848
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}