{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f86c6d88-0c70-404a-b483-45617ce44c54", "symbol": "EDUCOMP", "name": "Educomp Solutions Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.237, "architecture_energy": 65.024, "architecture_maturity": 9.588, "architecture_confidence": 81.747, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.98, "rotation_up": 9.74, "upward_expansion": 13.79, "deceleration": 37.59, "rotation_down": 72.4, "downward_expansion": 89.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.912, 0.933091, 0.946952, 0.957398 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.91, "trend_reference": 0.978333, "distance_from_trend": -0.069847, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.068654, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.5601, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.82317, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.09, "excess_performance": -0.046291, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069847, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102995, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.5601, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016118, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.208232, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06343, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.201872, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63346, "relative_activity": 1.228199, "balance": 1.201872, "dry_up": 0.989901, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05579, "annualized_volatility": 0.209911, "from_high_reference": -0.45509, "from_low_reference": 0.070588 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.978333, "fair_value_reference": 2.068654, "structural_low": 0.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.033333, "positive_rate": 0.324324, "directional_follow_through": 0.594595, "median_excess_return": -0.02757, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 1.086207, "worst_return": -0.210526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.114286, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.111899, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 1.35, "worst_return": -0.351852, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.228571, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.23006, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.371429, "worst_return": -0.425926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.312903, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.128571, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010471, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078534, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.411916, "energy": 52.867491, "activity_lines": [ 0.937333, 0.952364, 0.956714, 0.968323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.9, "volume": 37562, "typical_volume": 55600.6, "trend": 0.985667, "fair_value": 2.074359, "relative_strength": -22.127604, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.814837, "energy": 63.815574, "activity_lines": [ 0.92, 0.941273, 0.951095, 0.96228 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.91, "volume": 63346, "typical_volume": 51576.35, "trend": 0.978333, "fair_value": 2.068654, "relative_strength": -20.82317, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.237164, "energy": 65.024189, "activity_lines": [ 0.912, 0.933091, 0.946952, 0.957398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }