{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f86cee66-38bf-4739-a0c7-b54392b9d10b", "symbol": "PDS", "name": "Precision Drilling Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 73.113, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.184, "architecture_energy": 42.144, "architecture_maturity": 21.173, "architecture_confidence": 91.52, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.46, "rotation_up": 19.48, "upward_expansion": 5.59, "deceleration": 48.15, "rotation_down": 51.98, "downward_expansion": 76.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 79.410667, 80.482727, 84.726381, 86.664645 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 75.75, "trend_reference": 87.293333, "distance_from_trend": -0.132236, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 65.308974, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.159871, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.025071, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.131008, "excess_performance": -0.256633, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.132236, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070152, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.159871, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.242831, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.110251, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.282525, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.131008, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.038923, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 696015, "relative_activity": 1.270009, "balance": 1.038923, "dry_up": 1.091357, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103569, "annualized_volatility": 0.439731, "from_high_reference": -0.270231, "from_low_reference": 0.442033 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 87.293333, "fair_value_reference": 65.308974, "structural_low": 71.92, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.021434, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.005343, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.383251, "worst_return": -0.146075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.143763, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.123279, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.031376, "worst_return": -0.217001, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.366147, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.280676, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.754462, "worst_return": 0.13446, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -1.819572, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.043211, "energy": 49.4023, "activity_lines": [ 80.047333, 84.698545, 88.280905, 88.273484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 83.66, "volume": 407203, "typical_volume": 599498.3, "trend": 86.498667, "fair_value": 65.060833, "relative_strength": 3.288969, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.952666, "energy": 54.103568, "activity_lines": [ 80.382667, 83.992182, 87.657857, 88.120237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 84.61, "volume": 383663, "typical_volume": 565555.95, "trend": 87.009, "fair_value": 65.180705, "relative_strength": 4.487917, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.291679, "energy": 39.220216, "activity_lines": [ 81.848667, 83.533636, 87.140905, 87.998387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 77.73, "volume": 905544, "typical_volume": 566227.05, "trend": 87.144, "fair_value": 65.25391, "relative_strength": -5.31419, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.312952, "energy": 28.473014, "activity_lines": [ 80.962667, 82.013091, 85.992952, 87.399742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 75.75, "volume": 696015, "typical_volume": 548039.25, "trend": 87.293333, "fair_value": 65.308974, "relative_strength": -11.025071, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.184113, "energy": 42.144458, "activity_lines": [ 79.410667, 80.482727, 84.726381, 86.664645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }