{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f879133e-36a6-44b5-a772-8d98fd3aacd7", "symbol": "USRIH", "name": "Amundi MSCI USA SRI Climate Paris Aligned UCITS ETF Acc EUR HEDGED", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.941, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.492, "architecture_energy": 54.176, "architecture_maturity": 72.664, "architecture_confidence": 51.9, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.93, "rotation_up": 48.22, "upward_expansion": 74.82, "deceleration": 70.94, "rotation_down": 28.69, "downward_expansion": 12.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 87.969332, 87.783818, 86.616381, 85.042968 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 90.919998, "trend_reference": 83.472334, "distance_from_trend": 0.089223, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 77.284585, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.176431, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.157033, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.120532, "excess_performance": -0.050359, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089223, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030493, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.176431, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059841, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05157, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022236, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.120532, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.121351, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14668, "relative_activity": 0.506285, "balance": 2.121351, "dry_up": 0.389128, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021101, "annualized_volatility": 0.141455, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.213237 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 83.472334, "fair_value_reference": 77.284585, "structural_low": 74.940002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.001497, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.013047, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.070314, "worst_return": -0.05969, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.006776, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.036746, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.053207, "worst_return": -0.096625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.041556, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.065327, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.085252, "worst_return": -0.229657, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-10", "close": 88.379997, "volume": 19780, "typical_volume": 31220.5, "trend": 82.643667, "fair_value": 76.850921, "relative_strength": -7.029164, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.237938, "energy": 76.50164, "activity_lines": [ 88.071332, 87.410364, 85.130477, 83.874796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 86.470001, "volume": 8743, "typical_volume": 31178.25, "trend": 82.841334, "fair_value": 76.947836, "relative_strength": -7.442601, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.66523, "energy": 58.886687, "activity_lines": [ 87.618666, 87.378, 85.447, 84.121656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 86.059998, "volume": 4361, "typical_volume": 30101.35, "trend": 83.009667, "fair_value": 77.041596, "relative_strength": -7.422858, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.973476, "energy": 47.697888, "activity_lines": [ 87.075332, 87.236727, 85.704048, 84.329312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 86.360001, "volume": 17323, "typical_volume": 29633.25, "trend": 83.208667, "fair_value": 77.14804, "relative_strength": -7.460484, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.644983, "energy": 35.234651, "activity_lines": [ 86.739333, 87.111636, 85.963191, 84.545463 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 90.919998, "volume": 14668, "typical_volume": 28971.8, "trend": 83.472334, "fair_value": 77.284585, "relative_strength": -5.157033, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.49171, "energy": 54.175873, "activity_lines": [ 87.969332, 87.783818, 86.616381, 85.042968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }