{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f87be113-a720-4c1a-85b0-4b1a466b99fd", "symbol": "2485", "name": "Zinwell Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 52.179, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.631, "architecture_energy": 82.878, "architecture_maturity": 29.074, "architecture_confidence": 84.28, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.95, "rotation_up": 9.9, "upward_expansion": 20.77, "deceleration": 37.35, "rotation_down": 74.27, "downward_expansion": 94.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.536667, 44.200001, 52.819524, 56.250646 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 43.0, "trend_reference": 56.461667, "distance_from_trend": -0.238421, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.582372, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.680845, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.444703, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.037394, "excess_performance": -0.403978, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.238421, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.176489, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.680845, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.322326, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.164447, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.907713, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.037394, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.545569, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25090212, "relative_activity": 0.243026, "balance": 1.545569, "dry_up": 0.265017, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.173435, "annualized_volatility": 0.84513, "from_high_reference": -0.505178, "from_low_reference": 2.628692 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.461667, "fair_value_reference": 25.582372, "structural_low": 32.299999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.013699, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.016619, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": -0.009217, "worst_return": -0.049479, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.027907, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.052172, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.150685, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.013699, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.016899, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.032558, "worst_return": -0.032432, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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59.603637, 63.789524, 60.923764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 43.400002, "volume": 32191379, "typical_volume": 181783264.55, "trend": 54.741667, "fair_value": 25.069872, "relative_strength": -6.863569, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.732188, "energy": 67.028585, "activity_lines": [ 49.566668, 55.97091, 61.731429, 60.226667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.200001, "volume": 22381154, "typical_volume": 159294823.9, "trend": 55.111667, "fair_value": 25.197115, "relative_strength": -16.297444, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.190246, "energy": 74.429177, "activity_lines": [ 45.580001, 52.214546, 59.376191, 59.288495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.75, "volume": 26724839, "typical_volume": 130048618.95, "trend": 55.363334, "fair_value": 25.29968, "relative_strength": -25.077705, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -57.647221, "energy": 81.603869, "activity_lines": [ 41.543334, 48.160001, 56.673334, 58.039355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.5, "volume": 35246404, "typical_volume": 105108645.85, "trend": 55.861667, "fair_value": 25.435897, "relative_strength": -17.858702, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.539204, "energy": 77.252625, "activity_lines": [ 40.186667, 45.646364, 54.547858, 57.08043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 43.0, "volume": 25090212, "typical_volume": 103240933.75, "trend": 56.461667, "fair_value": 25.582372, "relative_strength": -16.444703, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.630889, "energy": 82.878402, "activity_lines": [ 40.536667, 44.200001, 52.819524, 56.250646 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }