{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f87de9c8-eae0-4524-8459-b798397ba999", "symbol": "300159", "name": "Xinjiang Machinery Research Institute Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 73.6, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.413, "architecture_energy": 63.158, "architecture_maturity": 13.388, "architecture_confidence": 80.002, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.37, "rotation_up": 14.16, "upward_expansion": 28.86, "deceleration": 49.31, "rotation_down": 73.56, "downward_expansion": 58.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.912, 3.151091, 3.433524, 3.416237 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.06, "trend_reference": 3.371333, "distance_from_trend": -0.092347, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.799872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.092907, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.720553, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.0347, "excess_performance": -0.0421, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092347, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020585, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.092907, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.267949, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087206, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084979, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.0347, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.698056, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 325879298, "relative_activity": 2.093478, "balance": 0.698056, "dry_up": 1.453892, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12368, "annualized_volatility": 0.473751, "from_high_reference": -0.310811, "from_low_reference": 0.233871 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.371333, "fair_value_reference": 2.799872, "structural_low": 2.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.108074, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.064348, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.242268, "worst_return": -0.26971, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.082474, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.045976, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.150502, "worst_return": -0.407125, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.066177, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.08647, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.603093, "worst_return": -0.470738, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.24234, 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"2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109375, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.110063, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116477, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036364, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031746, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.916297, "energy": 20.042573, "activity_lines": [ 3.520667, 3.758364, 3.675762, 3.554108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.83, "volume": 193259557, "typical_volume": 136879820.8, "trend": 3.407333, "fair_value": 2.803141, "relative_strength": -13.696855, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.953204, "energy": 44.20621, "activity_lines": [ 3.231333, 3.567273, 3.609095, 3.515806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.74, "volume": 187101241, "typical_volume": 139102563.6, "trend": 3.390667, "fair_value": 2.801218, "relative_strength": -16.018278, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.182853, "energy": 57.523216, "activity_lines": [ 3.001333, 3.376364, 3.535905, 3.472753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.83, "volume": 199034912, "typical_volume": 144188006.05, "trend": 3.375333, "fair_value": 2.800385, "relative_strength": -11.505954, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.188242, "energy": 66.705903, "activity_lines": [ 2.893333, 3.230727, 3.47319, 3.436581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.06, "volume": 325879298, "typical_volume": 155664046.75, "trend": 3.371333, "fair_value": 2.799872, "relative_strength": -8.720553, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.412919, "energy": 63.15835, "activity_lines": [ 2.912, 3.151091, 3.433524, 3.416237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }