{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f87ea055-7191-4ff4-8910-8bc7309d8664", "symbol": "300492", "name": "Huatu Cendes CO., LTD", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.837, "architecture_energy": 56.747, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.308, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.46, "rotation_up": 29.02, "upward_expansion": 10.28, "deceleration": 60.93, "rotation_down": 48.2, "downward_expansion": 81.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.548, 24.595522, 27.5181, 31.715754 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 26.6, "trend_reference": 38.557659, "distance_from_trend": -0.310124, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 41.505597, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.359123, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.968616, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.516516, "excess_performance": -0.523916, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.310124, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178954, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.359123, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.222342, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.409686, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010723, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.516516, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.593324, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41275442, "relative_activity": 2.007909, "balance": 0.593324, "dry_up": 1.540634, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143027, "annualized_volatility": 0.478752, "from_high_reference": -0.60504, "from_low_reference": 0.290636 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.557659, "fair_value_reference": 41.505597, "structural_low": 20.610001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.011114, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.017307, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.379121, "worst_return": -0.210224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.02087, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.022493, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.382029, "worst_return": -0.394798, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.083209, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.079172, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.201609, "worst_return": -0.203, "sufficient": false }, { 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-53.368637, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.424389, "energy": 71.192063, "activity_lines": [ 22.697594, 24.366036, 28.625178, 33.451806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.25, "volume": 44975003, "typical_volume": 19053942.0, "trend": 39.433273, "fair_value": 41.53465, "relative_strength": -39.440001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.092508, "energy": 63.81148, "activity_lines": [ 23.637306, 24.382923, 28.005911, 32.543707 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.6, "volume": 41275442, "typical_volume": 20556434.85, "trend": 38.557659, "fair_value": 41.505597, "relative_strength": -40.968616, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.836718, "energy": 56.74743, "activity_lines": [ 24.548, 24.595522, 27.5181, 31.715754 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }