{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f87fa120-5955-4147-a404-dc337ec95682", "symbol": "CODA", "name": "Coda Octopus Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.928, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.024, "architecture_energy": 28.216, "architecture_maturity": 39.521, "architecture_confidence": 86.267, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.27, "rotation_up": 24.95, "upward_expansion": 15.5, "deceleration": 44.27, "rotation_down": 34.6, "downward_expansion": 63.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.246667, 10.126182, 10.699571, 11.165677 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.64, "trend_reference": 11.5995, "distance_from_trend": -0.082719, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.131099, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.308556, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.531638, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.072363, "excess_performance": -0.259816, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.082719, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036904, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.308556, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.208401, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105316, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156992, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.072363, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.695206, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 305778, "relative_activity": 0.452004, "balance": 0.695206, "dry_up": 0.597056, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106487, "annualized_volatility": 0.466956, "from_high_reference": -0.384259, "from_low_reference": 0.517832 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.5995, "fair_value_reference": 8.131099, "structural_low": 9.00005, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.010246, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": 0.002857, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.20801, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.03528, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.044342, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.356, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.223827, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.035057, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.308824, "worst_return": -0.300505, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029963, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.126632, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.217222, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.227481, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114673, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.153491, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.434258, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.181669, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01875, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061876, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.57, "volume": 130225, "typical_volume": 166026.3, "trend": 8.137367, "fair_value": 7.136568, "relative_strength": -9.804436, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 9.78, "volume": 529756, "typical_volume": 1036514.4, "trend": 11.521333, "fair_value": 8.084817, "relative_strength": -17.59756, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.641995, "energy": 73.61181, "activity_lines": [ 9.806667, 10.480727, 11.198524, 11.512495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.02, "volume": 501533, "typical_volume": 1018609.25, "trend": 11.542667, "fair_value": 8.091804, "relative_strength": -11.925558, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.913085, "energy": 69.052852, "activity_lines": [ 9.818667, 10.308545, 11.028, 11.415634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.04, "volume": 342768, "typical_volume": 1000746.35, "trend": 11.565333, "fair_value": 8.099753, "relative_strength": -10.456143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.849601, "energy": 56.549571, "activity_lines": [ 9.897333, 10.178, 10.876238, 11.318688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.14, "volume": 465539, "typical_volume": 759228.5, "trend": 11.586333, "fair_value": 8.112189, "relative_strength": -10.240513, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.34939, "energy": 40.159474, "activity_lines": [ 10.006667, 10.090909, 10.754762, 11.226731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.64, "volume": 305778, "typical_volume": 676493.45, "trend": 11.5995, "fair_value": 8.131099, "relative_strength": -10.531638, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.023513, "energy": 28.215725, "activity_lines": [ 10.246667, 10.126182, 10.699571, 11.165677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }