{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f87fdeae-0b13-454e-aa66-108e697f1e16", "symbol": "DRE", "name": "Dreadnought Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.951, "architecture_energy": 44.095, "architecture_maturity": 75.928, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.72, "rotation_up": 26.05, "upward_expansion": 6.44, "deceleration": 52.74, "rotation_down": 48.95, "downward_expansion": 79.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.014333, 0.014418, 0.015762, 0.017148 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.015, "trend_reference": 0.019267, "distance_from_trend": -0.221453, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.021378, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.298351, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.632941, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.285714, "excess_performance": -0.34942, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.221453, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200553, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.298351, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.230783, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.376329, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.439549, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.285714, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.174914, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15956632, "relative_activity": 0.846361, "balance": 0.174914, "dry_up": 0.586091, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158974, "annualized_volatility": 0.802987, "from_high_reference": -0.677419, "from_low_reference": 0.363636 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.019267, "fair_value_reference": 0.021378, "structural_low": 0.012, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.05719, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.066861, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.529412, "worst_return": -0.344828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.168403, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.168977, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 2.555556, "worst_return": -0.44, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.1875, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.159469, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.888889, "worst_return": -0.684211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"typical_volume": 18853211.8, "trend": 0.019267, "fair_value": 0.021378, "relative_strength": -37.632941, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.950601, "energy": 44.094918, "activity_lines": [ 0.014333, 0.014418, 0.015762, 0.017148 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }