{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f8827207-f583-4e3e-b463-0efa0d207259", "symbol": "XSP", "name": "iShares Core S&P 500 Index ETF (CAD-Hedged)", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.903, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.431, "architecture_energy": 55.242, "architecture_maturity": 51.281, "architecture_confidence": 78.702, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.24, "rotation_up": 55.44, "upward_expansion": 81.08, "deceleration": 61.34, "rotation_down": 25.84, "downward_expansion": 7.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.949331, 75.510048, 74.848323, 73.517066 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 77.839996, "trend_reference": 72.068826, "distance_from_trend": 0.080079, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 60.25857, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.291766, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.754402, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.10631, "excess_performance": -0.014111, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080079, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027686, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.291766, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003981, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017544, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001474, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.10631, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.975993, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 802400, "relative_activity": 1.025274, "balance": 2.975993, "dry_up": 0.990455, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022015, "annualized_volatility": 0.14113, "from_high_reference": -0.004985, "from_low_reference": 0.21663 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 72.068826, "fair_value_reference": 60.25857, "structural_low": 63.98, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.01482, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.002899, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.06229, "worst_return": -0.070646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.03962, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.004888, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.125464, "worst_return": -0.068462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.08045, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.016625, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.163259, "worst_return": -0.165448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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73.614558, 72.479737 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 74.949997, "volume": 716400, "typical_volume": 832325.0, "trend": 71.51888, "fair_value": 59.68741, "relative_strength": -2.996412, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.785509, "energy": 47.274642, "activity_lines": [ 75.19348, 75.083431, 73.902582, 72.712885 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 74.459999, "volume": 689400, "typical_volume": 814780.0, "trend": 71.652159, "fair_value": 59.864104, "relative_strength": -3.694592, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.097448, "energy": 45.321233, "activity_lines": [ 74.985332, 74.976524, 74.119607, 72.902635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 75.169998, "volume": 892400, "typical_volume": 799450.0, "trend": 71.834159, "fair_value": 60.052313, "relative_strength": -2.191938, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.876274, "energy": 42.466978, "activity_lines": [ 75.071999, 74.999899, 74.375489, 73.129592 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 77.839996, "volume": 802400, "typical_volume": 782620.0, "trend": 72.068826, "fair_value": 60.25857, "relative_strength": -1.754402, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.431096, "energy": 55.242166, "activity_lines": [ 75.949331, 75.510048, 74.848323, 73.517066 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }