{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f88d0a47-a7df-4902-9ab1-0573214ecfab", "symbol": "QS", "name": "QuantumScape Corporation Class A Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.344, "architecture_energy": 68.17, "architecture_maturity": 19.283, "architecture_confidence": 82.78, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.73, "rotation_up": 9.36, "upward_expansion": 14.78, "deceleration": 37.38, "rotation_down": 73.86, "downward_expansion": 90.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.615667, 6.133091, 6.764048, 6.90314 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.08, "trend_reference": 7.2905, "distance_from_trend": -0.166038, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.110929, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.144978, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.325782, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.282172, "excess_performance": -0.469626, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.166038, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205164, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.144978, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192312, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.443258, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111113, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.282172, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.914841, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 72819088, "relative_activity": 0.651696, "balance": 0.914841, "dry_up": 1.197674, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.207995, "annualized_volatility": 0.613814, "from_high_reference": -0.681173, "from_low_reference": 0.274633 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.2905, "fair_value_reference": 7.110929, "structural_low": 4.77, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.037671, "positive_rate": 0.548387, "directional_follow_through": 0.451613, "median_excess_return": -0.038747, "regime_survival": 0.741935, "best_return": 0.699758, "worst_return": -0.274491, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.093354, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.027953, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 1.292627, "worst_return": -0.325803, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.093354, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.214514, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.889169, "worst_return": -0.284691, "sufficient": true }, 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5.927, 6.625636, 7.02319, 7.14686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.22, "volume": 161484475, "typical_volume": 110308633.75, "trend": 7.4415, "fair_value": 7.120032, "relative_strength": -50.203376, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.172547, "energy": 74.284626, "activity_lines": [ 5.563333, 6.274091, 6.849071, 6.990978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.08, "volume": 72819088, "typical_volume": 111737888.25, "trend": 7.2905, "fair_value": 7.110929, "relative_strength": -44.325782, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.344202, "energy": 68.170079, "activity_lines": [ 5.615667, 6.133091, 6.764048, 6.90314 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }