{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f88d512f-bcf5-4e2a-993c-c90d6929e8eb", "symbol": "300713", "name": "Shenzhen Increase Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.47, "architecture_energy": 60.187, "architecture_maturity": 46.505, "architecture_confidence": 90.48, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 20.16, "upward_expansion": 10.48, "deceleration": 57.58, "rotation_down": 62.11, "downward_expansion": 83.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.124, 12.422545, 13.837381, 14.775978 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.73, "trend_reference": 15.936667, "distance_from_trend": -0.201213, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.252051, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.216714, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.593003, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.257726, "excess_performance": -0.265126, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.201213, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09533, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.216714, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.280479, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.27593, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095288, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.257726, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.859135, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15997340, "relative_activity": 1.028103, "balance": 0.859135, "dry_up": 1.070537, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108466, "annualized_volatility": 0.429793, "from_high_reference": -0.421364, "from_low_reference": 0.235922 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.936667, "fair_value_reference": 16.252051, "structural_low": 10.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.039828, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": 0.018088, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.270898, "worst_return": -0.232286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.057225, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.047357, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.347267, "worst_return": -0.236919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.042279, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024676, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.821543, "worst_return": -0.314239, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"direction": -75.069318, "energy": 89.175266, "activity_lines": [ 12.98, 13.968364, 15.225286, 15.920925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.59, "volume": 14178175, "typical_volume": 19019991.7, "trend": 16.468, "fair_value": 16.433013, "relative_strength": -33.605623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.01849, "energy": 92.274613, "activity_lines": [ 12.445333, 13.342, 14.793095, 15.594365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.25, "volume": 16953595, "typical_volume": 16827430.0, "trend": 16.268, "fair_value": 16.365577, "relative_strength": -35.043137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.788756, "energy": 86.97784, "activity_lines": [ 11.941333, 12.771455, 14.362238, 15.25772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.16, "volume": 19501330, "typical_volume": 15835819.55, "trend": 16.089, "fair_value": 16.295769, "relative_strength": -28.007773, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.887645, "energy": 66.034571, "activity_lines": [ 11.921333, 12.492909, 14.056428, 14.992688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.73, "volume": 15997340, "typical_volume": 15560055.3, "trend": 15.936667, "fair_value": 16.252051, "relative_strength": -27.593003, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.469931, "energy": 60.18654, "activity_lines": [ 12.124, 12.422545, 13.837381, 14.775978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }