{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f88d8501-ec81-4983-9f4f-7e1e796d1718", "symbol": "UBR", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST ULTRA MSCI BRAZIL CAPD (POST REV SPLIT)", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 73.705, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.483, "architecture_energy": 22.533, "architecture_maturity": 44.686, "architecture_confidence": 73.766, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.77, "rotation_up": 27.09, "upward_expansion": 19.14, "deceleration": 44.29, "rotation_down": 29.05, "downward_expansion": 57.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.348647, 30.80784, 31.805032, 32.842184 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 30.2141, "trend_reference": 33.821285, "distance_from_trend": -0.106654, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.22391, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.247284, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.295404, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.166331, "excess_performance": -0.291956, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106654, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037745, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.247284, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.33217, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092954, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.344429, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166331, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.805355, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9421, "relative_activity": 0.486033, "balance": 0.805355, "dry_up": 0.41894, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088738, "annualized_volatility": 0.523079, "from_high_reference": -0.311438, "from_low_reference": 0.595182 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.821285, "fair_value_reference": 24.22391, "structural_low": 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24.071546, "relative_strength": -6.551285, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.879348, "energy": 53.344383, "activity_lines": [ 29.238367, 30.250311, 32.905033, 33.474968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.9273, "volume": 4426, "typical_volume": 23901.7, "trend": 33.196907, "fair_value": 24.106913, "relative_strength": 0.292671, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.814464, "energy": 35.021253, "activity_lines": [ 30.177281, 30.280556, 32.67952, 33.403464 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.5016, "volume": 7300, "typical_volume": 22857.4, "trend": 33.375943, "fair_value": 24.1245, "relative_strength": -3.182477, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.08599, "energy": 33.231638, "activity_lines": [ 30.391185, 30.168104, 32.354561, 33.229573 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.7001, "volume": 7790, "typical_volume": 21103.85, "trend": 33.564406, "fair_value": 24.147239, "relative_strength": 0.594099, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.972951, "energy": 25.307975, "activity_lines": [ 30.972987, 30.402587, 32.180349, 33.121454 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.7821, "volume": 7971, "typical_volume": 19854.7, "trend": 33.760485, "fair_value": 24.190952, "relative_strength": 2.233207, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.928033, "energy": 24.806353, "activity_lines": [ 31.684933, 30.841059, 32.117191, 33.070983 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.2141, "volume": 9421, "typical_volume": 19383.45, "trend": 33.821285, "fair_value": 24.22391, "relative_strength": -9.295404, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.482566, "energy": 22.532507, "activity_lines": [ 31.348647, 30.80784, 31.805032, 32.842184 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }