{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f88e3c91-8069-4fa1-866a-72ce44cb0f1b", "symbol": "FMF", "name": "FIRST TR EXCHANGE-TRADED FD V MANAGED FUTURES STRATEGY FUND", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -8.833, "architecture_energy": 7.487, "architecture_maturity": 31.092, "architecture_confidence": 43.511, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 68.24, "rotation_up": 26.42, "upward_expansion": 22.83, "deceleration": 71.08, "rotation_down": 32.1, "downward_expansion": 27.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.159733, 50.108975, 50.477236, 50.477766 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 50.1352, "trend_reference": 50.220655, "distance_from_trend": -0.001702, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.372325, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.104973, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.128166, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.022951, "excess_performance": -0.102674, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001702, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023272, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.104973, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041456, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081282, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054812, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.022951, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.250907, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 236794, "relative_activity": 0.9959, "balance": 0.250907, "dry_up": 0.690231, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021877, "annualized_volatility": 0.080271, "from_high_reference": -0.036979, "from_low_reference": 0.127278 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.220655, "fair_value_reference": 45.372325, "structural_low": 48.29803, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.004012, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.026646, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.030193, "worst_return": -0.035428, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.005202, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.030092, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.075483, "worst_return": -0.022179, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.009153, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.105531, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.098782, "worst_return": -0.057859, "sufficient": true 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"fair_value": 45.234791, "relative_strength": -5.157982, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.319075, "energy": 28.493475, "activity_lines": [ 49.859855, 50.227721, 50.604903, 50.439717 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.4, "volume": 128877, "typical_volume": 225773.3, "trend": 50.053844, "fair_value": 45.280177, "relative_strength": -3.620533, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.442096, "energy": 23.738971, "activity_lines": [ 50.019333, 50.194383, 50.577134, 50.47003 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.19, "volume": 195981, "typical_volume": 230460.4, "trend": 50.151446, "fair_value": 45.32603, "relative_strength": -4.957863, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.947369, "energy": 11.469887, "activity_lines": [ 50.108, 50.143277, 50.528607, 50.478814 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.1352, "volume": 236794, "typical_volume": 237768.8, "trend": 50.220655, "fair_value": 45.372325, "relative_strength": -8.128166, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.832676, "energy": 7.487111, "activity_lines": [ 50.159733, 50.108975, 50.477236, 50.477766 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }